Tapering Conversation Heating Up, Powell’s Prospects

The Jackson Hole summit has become one of the most important economic summits in the world. Many expect that this hallowed event with humble origins may be the long-anticipated venue for the Fed to communicate their monetary policy plans to the American people. In 1982, the nascent event was chosen to be put in the then very remote town of Jackson Hole, Wyoming because of a unique vulnerability its organizers attempted to exploit to ensure Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker’s attendance; his deep affinity for fly fishing.

The divide on the Board has been increasing. Seven Governors want to taper much earlier than the other thirteen. St. Louis Fed President Jeremy Bullard is becoming one of the leading public-faces of this faction. He has been stating publicly that there are many reasons to be more cautious and not assume the transitory inflation narrative is a ‘sure-thing.’ Recent data releases have certainly gotten his viewpoint more attention, particularly since many Fixed Income investors who have repeatedly lost money trying to time bonds always love to have someone other than themselves to blame. Despite this dynamic and the sometimes-virulent anti-Fed skepticism encountered on various corners of Wall Street, the hawks are gaining credibility. We dove deep into the inflation numbers in last week’s Wall Street Debrief and ultimately more data will be needed to see who is right.

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