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Forget EPS Recession, Fed Is Key; 3125 Target Seems Low

Looking back to the beginning of 2019, I said that as the year unfolded it would look a lot like 2009, arguing that the odds for a double-digit percentage stock market gain were the highest in more than a decade.

It was not because I was optimistic on earnings growth, as I have expected an earnings per share (EPS) recession this year. Instead, I argued that what happens to the market’s price/earnings ratio (P/E) is far more important to investors than the “E” in the P/E. Indeed, so far this...

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