NEW BULL VS LATE CYCLE: 6 reasons in favor of “new bull”
- US cos survived 6th major “stress test” yet P/E lower
- Investment outlook better now than in Feb 2025
- Still most hated rally
- Better visibility Tariffs, tax and de-regulation visibility
- Earnings solid
- Fed more dovish in 2026
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Attached below is our latest marketing deck.
Please CLICK HERE to access the presentation in PDF format.
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The bull market has proven itself intact. We previously identified two lists of “wash out” stocks, both large-cap (22 names) and SMID-cap (27 names). We want to look at stocks which did not make a new low between April 1-April 8, even as the S&P 500 fell to new lows.
The large-cap criteria is as follows:
- Current Market Cap >$15 Billion
- Declined more than 30% before Feb 18th
- Didn’t make new closing low between April 1st & April 8th
- Current price down more than 25% from 52W High
The large-cap “washed out” tickers are:
WBD 0.98% LULU 1.62% TSLA -3.59% DKNG 8.68% DG 3.42% DLTR 3.66% BF STZ -0.23% RKT 3.52% COIN 4.40% HOOD 3.09% HUM 0.55% UAL 1.73% LDOS 1.14% TEAM 1.09% HUBS 0.03% MSTR 1.98% CRM 0.25% NET 3.06% SMCI -1.00% EIX 0.85% VST 3.18%
The SMID-cap criteria is as follows:
- Current Market Cap <$15 Billion
- Declined more than 30% before Feb 18th
- Didn’t make new closing low between April 1st & April 8th
- Current price down more than 25% from 52W High
- Short interest Day to Cover Ratio >2
The SMID-cap “washed out” tickers are:
DJT -1.05% ROKU -2.92% AS -0.44% LCID -3.84% RIVN 0.20% LKQ 1.17% CROX 0.54% NCLH 4.61% WBA CELH -8.06% SOFI 3.94% MKTX 0.92% COLB 1.93% GRAL -0.82% INSP -2.41% PRGO -3.28% CNXC -5.11% DAY -0.28% LUV 2.19% LYFT 3.53% CFLT -1.31% DT 2.52% ESTC 3.97% PCOR 0.64% LITE 0.18% ALAB 1.64% AES -0.42%
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45 SMID Granny Shot Ideas: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 5/22. Full stock list here -> Click here
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Key Incoming Data July:
7/1 9:45 AM ET: Jun F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame- 7/
1 10:00 AM ET: May JOLTS Job OpeningsMixed 7/1 10:00 AM ET: Jun ISM Manufacturing PMITame7/3 8:30 AM ET: Jun Non-farm PayrollsMixed7/3 8:30 AM ET: May Trade BalanceTame7/3 9:45 AM ET: Jun F S&P Global Services PMITame7/3 10:00 AM ET: May F Durable Goods Orders MoMTame7/3 10:00 AM ET: Jun ISM Services PMITame7/8 6:00 AM ET: Jun Small Business Optimism SurveyTame7/8 9:00 AM ET: Jun F Manheim Used Vehicle IndexMixed7/8 11:00 AM ET: Jun NYFed 1yr Inf ExpTame7/9 2:00 PM ET: Jun FOMC Meeting MinutesMixed7/15 8:30 AM ET: Jun Core CPI MoMTame7/15 8:30 AM ET: Jul Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame7/16 8:30 AM ET: Jun Core PPI MoMTame7/17 8:30 AM ET: Jul Philly Fed Business OutlookTame7/17 8:30 AM ET: Jun Retail SalesTame7/17 9:00 AM ET: Jul M Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame7/17 10:00 AM ET: Jul NAHB Housing Market IndexTame7/17 4:00 PM ET: May Net TIC FlowsTame- 7/18 10:00 AM ET: Jul P U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp
- 7/22 10:00 AM ET: Jul Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey
- 7/23 10:00 AM ET: Jun Existing Home Sales
- 7/24 8:30 AM ET: Jun Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
- 7/24 9:45 AM ET: Jul P S&P Global Services PMI
- 7/24 9:45 AM ET: Jul P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
- 7/24 10:00 AM ET: Jun New Home Sales
- 7/24 11:00 AM ET: Jul Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
- 7/25 8:30 AM ET: Jun P Durable Goods Orders MoM
- 7/28 10:30 AM ET: Jul Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
- 7/29 9:00 AM ET: May S&P CS home price 20-City MoM
- 7/29 10:00 AM ET: Jul Conference Board Consumer Confidence
- 7/29 10:00 AM ET: Jun JOLTS Job Openings
- 7/30 8:30 AM ET: 2Q A GDP QoQ
- 7/30 2:00 PM ET: Jul FOMC Decision
- 7/31 8:30 AM ET: Jun Core PCE MoM
- 7/31 8:30 AM ET: 2Q ECI QoQ
Economic Data Performance Tracker 2025:
Economic Data Performance Tracker 2024:
Economic Data Performance Tracker 2023:
