Thu, July 17, 2025 | 8:18PM ET

MARKETING DECK: P/E should likely be expanding in 2026

Tom Lee, CFA ^AC

Head of Research

NEW BULL VS LATE CYCLE: 6 reasons in favor of “new bull”

US cos survived 6^th major “stress test” yet P/E lower
Investment outlook better now than in Feb 2025
Still most hated rally
Better visibility Tariffs, tax and de-regulation visibility
Earnings solid
Fed more dovish in 2026

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Attached below is our latest marketing deck.

Please CLICK HERE to access the presentation in PDF format.

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The bull market has proven itself intact. We previously identified two lists of “wash out” stocks, both large-cap (22 names) and SMID-cap (27 names). We want to look at stocks which did not make a new low between April 1-April 8, even as the S&P 500 fell to new lows.
The large-cap criteria is as follows:

Current Market Cap >$15 Billion
Declined more than 30% before Feb 18th
Didn’t make new closing low between April 1st & April 8th
Current price down more than 25% from 52W High

The large-cap “washed out” tickers are:
WBD LULU TSLA DKNG DG DLTR BF STZ RKT COIN HOOD HUM UAL LDOS TEAM HUBS MSTR CRM NET SMCI EIX VST
The SMID-cap criteria is as follows:

Current Market Cap <$15 Billion
Declined more than 30% before Feb 18th
Didn’t make new closing low between April 1st & April 8th
Current price down more than 25% from 52W High
Short interest Day to Cover Ratio >2

The SMID-cap “washed out” tickers are:
DJT ROKU AS LCID RIVN LKQ CROX NCLH WBA CELH SOFI MKTX COLB GRAL INSP PRGO CNXC DAY LUV LYFT CFLT DT ESTC PCOR LITE ALAB AES

MARKETING DECK: P/E should likely be expanding in 2026

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45 SMID Granny Shot Ideas: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 5/22. Full stock list here -> Click here

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Key Incoming Data July:

~~7/1 9:45 AM ET: Jun F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI~~ Tame
7/~~1 10:00 AM ET: May JOLTS Job Openings~~ Mixed
~~7/1 10:00 AM ET: Jun ISM Manufacturing PMI~~ Tame
~~7/3 8:30 AM ET: Jun Non-farm Payrolls~~ Mixed
~~7/3 8:30 AM ET: May Trade Balance~~ Tame
~~7/3 9:45 AM ET: Jun F S&P Global Services PMI~~ Tame
~~7/3 10:00 AM ET: May F Durable Goods Orders MoM~~ Tame
~~7/3 10:00 AM ET: Jun ISM Services PMI~~ Tame
~~7/8 6:00 AM ET: Jun Small Business Optimism Survey~~ Tame
~~7/8 9:00 AM ET: Jun F Manheim Used Vehicle Index~~ Mixed
~~7/8 11:00 AM ET: Jun NYFed 1yr Inf Exp~~ Tame
~~7/9 2:00 PM ET: Jun FOMC Meeting Minutes~~ Mixed
~~7/15 8:30 AM ET: Jun Core CPI MoM~~ Tame
~~7/15 8:30 AM ET: Jul Empire Manufacturing Survey~~ Tame
~~7/16 8:30 AM ET: Jun Core PPI MoM~~ Tame
~~7/17 8:30 AM ET: Jul Philly Fed Business Outlook~~ Tame
~~7/17 8:30 AM ET: Jun Retail Sales~~ Tame
~~7/17 9:00 AM ET: Jul M Manheim Used Vehicle Index~~ Tame
~~7/17 10:00 AM ET: Jul NAHB Housing Market Index~~ Tame
~~7/17 4:00 PM ET: May Net TIC Flows~~ Tame
7/18 10:00 AM ET: Jul P U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp
7/22 10:00 AM ET: Jul Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey
7/23 10:00 AM ET: Jun Existing Home Sales
7/24 8:30 AM ET: Jun Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
7/24 9:45 AM ET: Jul P S&P Global Services PMI
7/24 9:45 AM ET: Jul P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
7/24 10:00 AM ET: Jun New Home Sales
7/24 11:00 AM ET: Jul Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
7/25 8:30 AM ET: Jun P Durable Goods Orders MoM
7/28 10:30 AM ET: Jul Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
7/29 9:00 AM ET: May S&P CS home price 20-City MoM
7/29 10:00 AM ET: Jul Conference Board Consumer Confidence
7/29 10:00 AM ET: Jun JOLTS Job Openings
7/30 8:30 AM ET: 2Q A GDP QoQ
7/30 2:00 PM ET: Jul FOMC Decision
7/31 8:30 AM ET: Jun Core PCE MoM
7/31 8:30 AM ET: 2Q ECI QoQ

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2025:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2024:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2023:

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