NRG -1.46% and VST -2.81% both lower by more than 4% today as the Power generation stocks start to retreat after huge rallies over the last month. VST had actually surpassed NVDA over the last month to be ^SPX 0.32% 's top performing sector and is still up =217.65% vs. NVDA's +165.74% in Year-to-Date terms through 10/9/24. NRG -1.46% as shown below, is pulling back and should retest the pivot point of its breakout which I expect to be strong support on this decline.. this should come in between $85.50-$86.50 and provide a counter-trend rally. The key takeaway is that the selling pressure in Utilities remains early to make any larger calls on this sector. On a relative and absolute basis, XLU -0.33% and RYU are still trending higher on an intermediate-term basis, and i expect this recent near-term selling pressure should prove short-lived.
VST -2.81% is up another 3.9% today, and has nearly doubled in price over the last 18 trading days. At $137.74, the most realistic near-term resistance level might materialize near $146 which is double the early September lows. As ive discussed in past reports, the ability to double off a certain level often presents formidable resistance. While VST is certainly overbought, it's shown no evidence of peaking out after four straight weeks higher. RSI is showing negative divergence on weekly and monthly charts, but yet DeMark-based exhaustion will take at least another six trading days. Thus, i'm fairly confident that VST's momentum allows this to continue this run into mid to late October before any consolidation. UPTICKS
VST -2.81% break of support has resulted in further acceleration lower in the last 24 hours on heavier volume. While some might have respected support levels, i few this technically as a good risk/reward from 70-71 and believe it should find strong support there within 3-4 trading days. Thus, this will not be officially removed from UPTICKS as meaningful support lies just below. As daily charts show, VST now is on a 5 count of a possible 9 and hovering right above its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and also DeMark based TDST lines. Overall, i do suspect this likely has a bit more downside. However, this will be an excellent risk/reward at 71, just 4 points below current levels. It's right to hold this as the pattern has taken the form of an ABC corrective pattern and should bottom and then push back over prior lows at 82.35. Thus, at this time, no action is being taken and support is drawing near.
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