Some understandable "chop" ahead to digest +2% October gains. But we see multiple reasons for S&P 500 to gain in November. Array ( [cookie] => 704342-17d6de-ebc608-c5e687-567dcb [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 208344 [user_id] => [reason] => [method] => ) 1 and can accesss
The S&P 500 is on track to close up 2% for October. Looking back at the month, the Oct 10th swoon (-3%) triggered many to become cautious. But as we have highlighted many times this month, we are in the seasonally strong 4th quarter, so we are buying dips.
- Looking at November, the 6 things that we are focusing on are:
 1. 3Q25 EPS: 83% beat, best in several years
 2. AI continues to gain visibility
 3. Crypto suffers from Oct 10th deleveraging, but tokenization driving adoption
 4. Fed “dovish” and inflation weakening
 5. Private credit lingers in background
 6. Sentiment remains muted = fuel for YE rally
- We are halfway through 3Q25 earnings season with 244 companies reporting. 83% of companies are beating and overall beats are +4.3%, which implies overall 12% EPS growth YoY. There are many sectors posting double digit growth, so this is not only an AI story but rather demonstrates US corporates and multinationals are able to generate strong earnings gains despite the largest tariff increases in US history. Recall many economists predicted US profit margins would collapse by 3Q25 due to tariff cost surges.
- Fundamentally, the US earnings picture remains strong and supported by these 3 factors:
 - AI spending visibility remains strong and Amazon's $AMZN strong 3Q25 report is the latest
 - Financials are driving innovation via blockchain
 - Fed is dovish and lowering interest rates
 - and QT (quantitative tightening) is ending Dec 1.
- Media outlets reported OpenAI plans an IPO in 2027, valuing the company at $1 trillion. This is a staggering value for a company which was essentially founded 7 years ago. But this is also testament to the supercycle ahead driven by AI.
- As for lingering concerns, the two most likely concerning markets are:
 - private credit problems widening
 - US govt shutdown is nearing 30 days and no signs of improvement
- The FAA is issuing some groundstops due to personnel shortages and this is the latest signs of the ripple effects from the prolonged shutdown. The ripple effects will likely start to spread, and in our view, amplify uncertainty in the short term. This in turn, could slow hiring further. While this is ultimately transitory, we expect this to further pressure the Fed to lean more dovish as we move into December. Thus, the Dec cut is probably more likely than the Fed's "far from a foregone conclusion."
- Next week is a busy week in terms of macro data. While we are unlikely to receive the Employment data due to the shutdown, we will still be receiving valuable PMI and Inflation data.
 - 11/3 Mon 11:00 AM ET: Crypto & AI Webinar
 - 11/3 Mon 9:45 AM ET: Oct F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
 - 11/3 Mon 10:00 AM ET: Oct ISM Manufacturing PMI 49.1e
 -11/4 Tue 8:30 AM ET: Sep Trade BalanceDelayed due to Shutdown
 -11/4 Tue 10:00 AM ET: Sep JOLTS Job OpeningsDelayed due to Shutdown
 -11/4 Tue 10:00 AM ET: Sep F Durable Goods Orders MoMDelayed due to Shutdown
 - 11/5 Wed 9:45 AM ET: Oct F S&P Global Services PMI
 - 11/5 Wed 10:00 AM ET: Oct ISM Services PMI 50.9e
 - 11/5 Wed 11:00 AM ET: Fundstrat Annual Forum Webinar
 -11/6 Thu 8:30 AM ET: 3Q P Nonfarm Productivity QoQDelayed due to Shutdown
 -11/6 Thu 8:30 AM ET: 3Q P Unit Labor CostsDelayed due to Shutdown
 -11/7 Fri 8:30 AM ET: Oct Non-farm PayrollsDelayed due to Shutdown
 - 11/7 Fri 9:00 AM ET: Oct F Manheim Used Vehicle Index
 - 11/7 Fri 10:00 AM ET: Nov P U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp
 - 11/7 Fri 11:00 AM ET: Oct NYFed 1yr Inf Exp
- For November, while there may be some understandable chop, to digest the strong gains of October, we expect November to be an up month.
 
                 
                Become a Member To Access FS Insight Research
FS Insight gives individual investors access to Tom Lee's research, previously only available to banks and hedge funds.
| 
 | |||
| Join Now | 
| 
 | |||
| Join Now | 
What's included in your FSI Membership?
 
            Thomas J. Lee
Head of Research
| Type | Publication | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Monthly | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reports | First Word The best market research out there -- on a near-daily basis. |   |   |   | ||||
| Intraday Alerts These are released periodically after crucial market developments. | Real-Time | |||||||
| Weekly Roadmap Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses. |   | |||||||
| Webinars & Videos | Macro Minute Video Daily video commentary on market conditions & key events. |   |   |   |   | |||
| Outlook Webinars We host over 12 LIVE webinars per year with our research team and high-profile special guests. Incredible value and market insights! | Yearly | |||||||
| Granny Shots Webinars |   | |||||||
| CEO Interview Webinars | Quarterly | |||||||
| Appearances Archive | Real-Time | |||||||
| Allocation Tools | "Super Granny" Shots Stock List Granny Shots we expect to tactically outperform and underperform. |   | ||||||
| Granny Shots Stock List Thematic investment stock picks that aim to outperform the S&P 500. |   | |||||||
| Sector Allocation A sector allocation strategy that is designed to outperform the S&P 500 while taking minimal risk. |   | |||||||
| Market Alerts | ⚡️FlashInsights Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads. |   |   |   |   |   | Real-Time | 
 
            Mark L. Newton
Head of Technical Strategy
| Type | Publication | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Monthly | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reports | Daily Technical Strategy Daily commentary on market trends and short term opportunities. |   |   |   |   |   | ||
| Weekly Roadmap Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses. |   | |||||||
| Webinars & Videos | Daily Technical Strategy Daily commentary on market trends and short term opportunities. |   |   |   |   |   | ||
| Live Technical Analysis |   | |||||||
| Outlook Webinars We host over 12 LIVE webinars per year with our research team and high-profile special guests. Incredible value and market insights! | Yearly | |||||||
| Appearances Archive | Real-Time | |||||||
| Allocation Tools | Newton's Upticks Stock List Technically derived, intermediate-term picks of attractive risk/reward opportunities from the S&P 500. |   | ||||||
| Market Alerts | ⚡️FlashInsights Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads. |   |   |   |   |   |   | 
 
            L. Thomas Block
Washington Policy Strategy
| Type | Publication | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Monthly | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reports | US Policy Weekly update on developments in Washington DC and how they may impact Wall Street. |   |   | |||||
| Weekly Roadmap Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses. |   | |||||||
| Market Alerts | ⚡️FlashInsights Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads. |   |   |   |   |   | Real-Time | 
 
                     
                Sean Farrell & Crypto Team
| Type | Publication | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Monthly | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reports | Market Update Stay on top of the crypto markets with macro commentary, technical analysis, and the most relevant news. |   |   |   |   |   | ||
| Weekly Strategy Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses. |   | |||||||
| Funding Fridays Are you looking for investment opportunities in the crypto space? We explore early-stage crypto opportunities in this note about where the smart money is being invested! |   | |||||||
| Crypto Concepts We periodically provide in-depth research on the leading protocols, companies, and funds shaping the crypto ecosystem. |   | |||||||
| Liquid Ventures A recurring research note focused on delivering unique insights into high-risk investment opportunities within the crypto ecosystem, primarily centered on early-stage or small-cap tokens. |   | |||||||
| Deep Research We periodically provide in-depth research on the leading protocols, companies, and funds shaping the crypto ecosystem. | Quarterly | |||||||
| Weekly Roadmap Weekly summary of market events and updates on our key theses. |   | |||||||
| Webinars & Videos | Outlook Webinars Ongoing webinars exploring crypto opportunities, in depth research, and exclusive research offerings from our team of analysts and leading cryptocurrency firms. | Yearly | ||||||
| Crypto Comments | Daily Technical Strategy From Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana to other coins, our Head of Technical Strategy highlights important price movement to help give you an edge. |   | ||||||
| Allocation Tools | Crypto Core Strategy A powerful tool designed to help crypto investors build a crypto portfolio that outperforms the industry’s king – bitcoin – regardless of market conditions. |   | ||||||
| Market Alerts | ⚡️FlashInsights Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads. |   |   |   |   |   | Real-Time | 
 
                FS Insight Research Team
| Type | Publication | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Monthly | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reports | First to Market |   |   |   |   |   | ||
| *Earnings Daily This note provides investors with a myriad of useful metrics to measure the progress of earnings season |   |   |   |   |   | |||
| Signal From Noise Highlights timely market themes and sectors with corresponding stocks, cutting through the day-to-day market “noise” for a distinct perspective. |   | |||||||
| FS Insight Academy Our main goal is to make you a better investor! This series will guide you through key financial concepts and topics in an understandable way. |   | |||||||
| Webinars & Videos | Free Macro Webinars Live webinars and Q&A with our research team and high-profile industry leaders. | Quarterly | ||||||
| Free Crypto Webinars Live webinars and Q&A with our research team and high-profile industry leaders. | Quarterly | 
*Daily reporting during each quarterly earnings season.
 
                                                 
         
                 
                        