Some understandable "chop" ahead to digest +2% October gains. But we see multiple reasons for S&P 500 to gain in November.

The S&P 500 is on track to close up 2% for October. Looking back at the month, the Oct 10th swoon (-3%) triggered many to become cautious. But as we have highlighted many times this month, we are in the seasonally strong 4th quarter, so we are buying dips.

  • Looking at November, the 6 things that we are focusing on are:
    1. 3Q25 EPS: 83% beat, best in several years
    2. AI continues to gain visibility
    3. Crypto suffers from Oct 10th deleveraging, but tokenization driving adoption
    4. Fed “dovish” and inflation weakening
    5. Private credit lingers in background
    6. Sentiment remains muted = fuel for YE rally
  • We are halfway through 3Q25 earnings season with 244 companies reporting. 83% of companies are beating and overall beats are +4.3%, which implies overall 12% EPS growth YoY. There are many sectors posting double digit growth, so this is not only an AI story but rather demonstrates US corporates and multinationals are able to generate strong earnings gains despite the largest tariff increases in US history. Recall many economists predicted US profit margins would collapse by 3Q25 due to tariff cost surges.
  • Fundamentally, the US earnings picture remains strong and supported by these 3 factors:
    - AI spending visibility remains strong and Amazon's $AMZN strong 3Q25 report is the latest
    - Financials are driving innovation via blockchain
    - Fed is dovish and lowering interest rates
    - and QT (quantitative tightening) is ending Dec 1.
  • Media outlets reported OpenAI plans an IPO in 2027, valuing the company at $1 trillion. This is a staggering value for a company which was essentially founded 7 years ago. But this is also testament to the supercycle ahead driven by AI.
  • As for lingering concerns, the two most likely concerning markets are:
    - private credit problems widening
    - US govt shutdown is nearing 30 days and no signs of improvement
  • The FAA is issuing some groundstops due to personnel shortages and this is the latest signs of the ripple effects from the prolonged shutdown. The ripple effects will likely start to spread, and in our view, amplify uncertainty in the short term. This in turn, could slow hiring further. While this is ultimately transitory, we expect this to further pressure the Fed to lean more dovish as we move into December. Thus, the Dec cut is probably more likely than the Fed's "far from a foregone conclusion."
  • Next week is a busy week in terms of macro data. While we are unlikely to receive the Employment data due to the shutdown, we will still be receiving valuable PMI and Inflation data.
    - 11/3 Mon 11:00 AM ET: Crypto & AI Webinar
    - 11/3 Mon 9:45 AM ET: Oct F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI   
    - 11/3 Mon 10:00 AM ET: Oct ISM Manufacturing PMI    49.1e
    - 11/4 Tue 8:30 AM ET: Sep Trade Balance   Delayed due to Shutdown
    - 11/4 Tue 10:00 AM ET: Sep JOLTS Job Openings   Delayed due to Shutdown
    - 11/4 Tue 10:00 AM ET: Sep F Durable Goods Orders MoM   Delayed due to Shutdown
    - 11/5 Wed 9:45 AM ET: Oct F S&P Global Services PMI   
    - 11/5 Wed 10:00 AM ET: Oct ISM Services PMI    50.9e
    - 11/5 Wed 11:00 AM ET: Fundstrat Annual Forum Webinar
    - 11/6 Thu 8:30 AM ET: 3Q P Nonfarm Productivity QoQ   Delayed due to Shutdown
    - 11/6 Thu 8:30 AM ET: 3Q P Unit Labor Costs   Delayed due to Shutdown
    - 11/7 Fri 8:30 AM ET: Oct Non-farm Payrolls   Delayed due to Shutdown
    - 11/7 Fri 9:00 AM ET: Oct F Manheim Used Vehicle Index
    - 11/7 Fri 10:00 AM ET: Nov P U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp   
    - 11/7 Fri 11:00 AM ET: Oct NYFed 1yr Inf Exp
  • For November, while there may be some understandable chop, to digest the strong gains of October, we expect November to be an up month.
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