Polymarket shows 54% probability election decided by Wed evening... positive "market surprise." Stocks rally into YE regardless of winner

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VIDEO: We wanted to provide you the fundamental rationale why stocks rally with either candidate winning (duration: 5:18).

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Polls close Tuesday evening and investors now wait to see who is elected our next President and Congress. Media outlets are predicting an election outcome will take some time and similarly, investors are largely expecting the outcome to take several days:

Polymarket.com offers a wager "When will AP (Associated Press) call the election"?- this is an interesting bet- Tue 11/5 18%- Wed 11/6 46%- Thu 11/7 17%- Fri 11/8 8%- etc 11% This is interesting as 54% are betting on an election decision within the next 24 hours. And media outlets like NBC.com are warning that a decision might be delayed for some time. And many harken this to 2000 when the election was not declared until more than a month later in December. One possible explanation is betting markets see a "landslide" winner. - plenty see a Harris landslide --> one example- plenty see a Trump landslide --> one example Perhaps the surprise for markets is a "landslide" winner that is declared within the next 24 hours. This would be a positive for financial markets, removing the unce...
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