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VIDEO: We see 5 reasons stocks rally post-FOMC, even if the Fed sounds cautious on the progress of inflation.
Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 04:19).
The S&P 500 has been soft into the March FOMC rate decision, set to be released at 2pm ET today (3/20). While there are understandable reasons for being cautious, including the Jan/Feb CPI “hotter” than expected, and the fact that financial conditions have eased, we believe probabilities favor stocks rallying post-FOMC rate decision:
- The 5 reasons to expect a rally are as follows:
1. When soft into FOMC, rally happens 4 of 7 times
2. Interest rates softening into FOMC = ST peak
3. Market priced in “bad news”: Fewer + Later cuts
4. Powell was dovish to Congress (3/6-3/7) = dovish
5. Per Mark Newton: technical set-up positive - In order for stocks to rally post-FOMC, there needs to be an element of either surprise or relief. To us, there is a little bit of both at play. Over the past week, John Bai (the other co-founder of Fundstrat) and I met with many institutional investors in Latin America, and yesterday we did several meetings including a fairly large multistrategy offsite.
- What is apparent to both of us is the relatively high level of skepticism towards equities. The reasons for this caution are:
– CPI data has been “hot” and Fed expectations cut, but stocks up
– interest rates up but stocks also up
– recession concerns mount given the softening signs of labor, but stocks up
– consumer running out of excess savings, but stocks up
– recession expected by 3Q24, but stocks up
– valuations are extreme, but stocks up
– stocks only driven by 7 stocks, but stocks up
– AI is mostly just hype, but stocks up - You get the picture, investors are essentially incredulous that stocks have risen in 2023 and now this continues in 2024. One pundit, a strategist on a panel, even boldly noted:
– “you can own stocks for now, just until we see the ‘whites of the eyes’ of the recession” - Here is the problem. In my 32 years in financial research, I never met a single person who successfully modeled and forecasted each of the 4 recession in those 32 years. None. Yet, many seem confident their toolbox allows them to call this 2024 recession with precision. The best predictor of future contractions is arguably bond market liquidity and function. Those clearly sputtered in front of each contraction and today, those signs are not there.
- So turning back to the FOMC, the skepticism towards equities is still prevalent among institutional investors that we have visited with recently. And this caution, coupled with their expectation of a “hawkish” Fed is the reason we expect stocks to rally.
- To us, the Fed is still dovish, even if the number of Fed cuts is reduced in 2024. Currently, the market sees about 3 cuts of 25bp each. And if this is reduced to just 1 cut, it is arguably dovish. The only risk is if the Fed decides to hike rates in 2024. This is not probable. In fact, given our view that inflation is falling faster than appears, due to the statistical aberrations of Jan/Feb, we believe Fed likely cuts more than the consensus of 3 cuts.
Bottom line: We still see “gas in the tank”
We find investors become reflexively bearish every time the market starts to wobble. As long as “top calling” remains the default mode, we think stocks are likely to continue to surprise to the upside. Mark Newton sees 5,250-5,300 possible in S&P 500 possible post-FOMC.
- that is a lot of upside.
Please stick with what is working in 2024.
- AI NVDA 1.39% CDNS 1.24% ARM AMD 1.97% AIQ 1.32%
- Ozempic-related LLY 1.79% NVO 1.13%
- Financials and Industrials XLI 0.98% XLF 0.77%
- Bitcoin & Proxies BTC MARA -1.53% PYPL -0.93% COIN -2.70% MSTR 0.14%
- Stealth rally: Small-caps IWM 0.59% IJR 0.49% (better when Fed starts to cut)
![5 reasons we expect stocks to rally post-FOMC (Wed 2pm ET). Technicals positive and hence, still gas in the tank](https://cdn2.fsinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/image-155-1024x800.png)
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![5 reasons we expect stocks to rally post-FOMC (Wed 2pm ET). Technicals positive and hence, still gas in the tank](https://cdn2.fsinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/image-161-1024x808.png)
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Key incoming data March:
3/01 9:45 am ET: Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame3/01 10:00 am ET: Feb ISM ManufacturingTame3/01 10:00 am ET: Feb F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame3/05 9:45 am ET: Feb F S&P Global Services & Composite PMITame3/05 10:00 am ET: Feb ISM ServicesTame3/06 10:00 am ET: Powell Testimony before US House Financial Services CommitteeDovish3/06 10:00 am ET: Jan JOLTS Job OpeningsTame3/06 2:00 pm ET: Fed Releases Beige BookTame3/07 8:30 am ET: 4QF 2023 Nonfarm ProductivityTame3/07 9:00 am ET: Feb F Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame3/07 10:00 am ET: Powell Testimony before US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban AffairsDovish3/08 8:30 am ET: Feb Jobs ReportMixed- 3
/12 8:30 am ET: Feb CPISlightly Hot (as anticipated) 3/14 8:30 am ET: Feb PPIMixed3/14 8:30 am ET: Feb Retail Sales DataTame3/15 8:30 am ET: Mar Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame3/15 10:00 am ET: Mar P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame3/18 8:30 am ET: Mar New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame3/18 10:00 am ET: Mar NAHB Housing Market IndexTame3/19 9:00 am ET: Mar Mid-Month Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame- 3/20 2:00 pm ET: Mar FOMC Rate Decision
- 3/21 8:30 am ET: Mar Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey
- 3/21 9:45 am ET: Mar P S&P Global PMI
- 3/25 10:30 am ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Survey
- 3/26 9:00 am ET: Mar S&P CoreLogic CS home price
- 3/26 10:00 am ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer Confidence
- 3/28 8:30 am ET: 4QT 2023 GDP
- 3/28 10:00 am ET: Mar F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
- 3/29 8:30 am ET: Feb PCE
Key incoming data February:
2/01 8:30am ET 4QP 2023 Nonfarm ProductivityMixed2/01 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI January FinalTame2/01 10am ET January ISM ManufacturingMixed2/02 8:30am ET January Jobs ReportHot2/02 10am ET: U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation January FinalTame2/05 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI January FinalTame2/05 10am ET January ISM ServicesTame2/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index January FinalMixed2/09 CPI RevisionsTame2/13 8:30am ET January CPIMixed2/14 PPI RevisionsTame2/15 8:30am ET February Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame2/15 8:30am ET February Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame2/15 8:30am ET January Retail Sales DataTame2/15 10am EST February NAHB Housing Market IndexTame2/16 8:30am ET January PPIMixed2/16 8:30am ET February New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame2/16 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation February PrelimTame2/19 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index February Mid-MonthTame2/21 2pm ET January FOMC Meeting MinutesTame2/22 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI February PrelimTame2/26 10:30am ET February Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame2/27 9am ET February S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame2/27 10am ET February Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame- 2/
28 8:30am ET 4QS 2023 GDPTame 2/29 8:30am ET January PCETame
Key incoming data January:
1/02 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI December FinalMixed1/03 10am ET December ISM ManufacturingTame1/03 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings NovemberTame1/03 2pm ET December FOMC Meeting MinutesTame1/04 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI December FinalTame1/05 8:30am ET December Jobs ReportMixed1/05 10am ET December ISM ServicesTame1/08 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December FinalTame- 1/
11 8:30am ET December CPIDetails Suggest Tame 1/12 8:30am ET December PPITame1/16 8:30am ET January Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame1/17 8:30am ET January New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame1/17 8:30am ET December Retail Sales DataStrong1/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index January Mid-MonthTame1/17 10am EST January NAHB Housing Market IndexMixed1/18 8:30am ET January Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame1/19 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation January PrelimTame1/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI January PrelimMixed1/25 8:30am ET 4QA 2023 GDPMixed1/26 8:30am ET December PCETame1/29 9:30am ET Dallas Fed January Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame1/30 9am ET January S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame1/30 10am ET January Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame1/30 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings DecemberMixed1/31 2pm ET FOMC Rate DecisionTame
Key incoming data December
12/01 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI November FinalTame12/01 10am ET November ISM ManufacturingStrong12/05 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI November FinalStrong12/05 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings OctoberTame12/05 10am ET November ISM ServicesStrong12/06 8:30am ET 3QF 2023 Nonfarm ProductivityStrong12/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November FinalTame12/08 8:30am ET November Jobs ReportTame12/08 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December PrelimTame12/12 8:30am ET November CPITame12/13 8:30am ET November PPITame12/13 2pm ET FOMC Rate DecisionDovish12/14 8:30am ET November Retail Sales DataTame12/15 8:30am ET December Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame12/15 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI December PrelimTame12/18 8:30am ET December New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame12/18 10am ET December NAHB Housing Market IndexTame12/19 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December Mid-MonthTame12/20 10am ET December Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame12/21 8:30am ET 3QT 2023 GDPMixed12/21 8:30am ET December Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyMixed12/22 8:30am ET November PCETame12/22 10am ET: U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December FinalTame12/26 9am ET December S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame12/26 10:30am ET Dallas Fed December Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame- 12/29 9:45am ET December Chicago PMI
Key incoming data November
11/01 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October FinalTame11/01 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings SeptemberMixed11/01 10am ET October ISM ManufacturingTame11/01 10am ET Treasury 4Q23 Quarterly Refunding Press ConferenceTame11/01 2pm ET FOMC Rate DecisionDovish11/02 8:30am ET: 3Q23 Nonfarm ProductivityTame11/03 8:30am ET October Jobs ReportTame11/03 10am ET October ISM ServicesMixed11/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index October FinalTame11/10 10am ET U. Mich. November prelim Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationHot11/14 8:30am ET October CPITame11/15 8:30am ET October PPITame11/15 8:30am ET November Empire Manufacturing SurveyResilient11/15 8:30am ET October Retail Sales DataResilient11/16 8:30am ET November New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame11/16 8:30am ET November Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame11/16 10am ET November NAHB Housing Market IndexTame11/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November Mid-MonthTame11/21 2pm ET Nov FOMC Meeting MinutesTame11/22 10am ET: U. Mich. November final Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame11/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI November PrelimMixed11/27 10:30am ET Dallas Fed November Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame11/28 9am ET November S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame11/28 10am ET November Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame11/29 8:30am ET 3QS 2023 GDPStrong11/29 2pm ET Fed Releases Beige BookTame11/30 8:30am ET October PCETame
Key incoming data October
10/2 10am ET September ISM ManufacturingTame-
10/3 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings AugustHot -
10/4 10am ET September ISM ServicesTame 10/6 8:30am ET September Jobs ReportMixed-
10/6 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index September FinalTame 10/10 11am NY Fed Inflation ExpectationsMixed-
10/11 8:30am ET September PPIMixed 10/11 2pm ET Sep FOMC Meeting MinutesTame-
10/12 8:30am ET September CPIMixed -
10/13 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflationMixed 10/16 8:30am ET October Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame10/17 8:30am ET October New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame10/17 8:30am ET September Retail Sales DataHot10/17 9am ET Manheim October Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value IndexTame10/17 10am ET October NAHB Housing Market IndexTame10/18 8:30am ET September Housing StartsTame10/18 2pm ET Fed releases Beige BookTame10/19 8:30am ET October Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame10/19 10am ET Existing Home SalesTame10/19 12pm ET Fed (including Powell) at Economic Club of New York10/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October PrelimTame-
10/26 8:30am ET 3Q 2023 GDP AdvanceStrong 10/27 8:30am ET September PCETame10/27 10am ET Oct F UMich Sentiment and Inflation expectationTame10/30 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame10/31 8:30am ET 3Q23 Employment Cost IndexMixed10/31 9am ET August S&P CoreLogic CS home priceMixed10/31 10am ET October Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame
Key incoming data September
9/1 8:30am ET August Jobs ReportTame9/1 10am ET August ISM ManufacturingTame9/6 10am ET August ISM ServicesMixed9/6 2pm ET Fed releases Beige BookTame9/8 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index August FinalTame9/8 2Q23 Fed Flow of Funds ReportTame-
9/13 8:30am ET August CPIMixed -
9/14 8:30am ET August PPITame -
9/15 8:30am ET September Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame 9/15 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflationTame-
9/18 8:30am ET September New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame -
9/18 10am ET September NAHB Housing Market IndexTame 9/19 9am ET Manheim September Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value IndexMixedMarket saw Hawkish9/20 2pm ET September FOMC rates decision-
9/21 8:30am ET September Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyMixed 9/22 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI September Prelim9/25 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity Survey9/26 9am ET July S&P CoreLogic CS home price9/26 10am ET September Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Key incoming data August
8/1 10am ET July ISM ManufacturingTame8/1 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings JunTame8/2 8:15am ADP National Employment ReportHot8/3 10am ET July ISM ServicesTame8/4 8:30am ET July Jobs reportTame8/7 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index July FinalTame8/10 8:30am ET July CPITame8/11 8:30am ET July PPITame8/11 10am ET U. Mich. July prelim 1-yr inflationTame8/11 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker JulyTame8/15 8:30am ET Aug Empire Manufacturing SurveyMixed8/15 10am ET Aug NAHB Housing Market IndexTame8/16 8:30am ET Aug New York Fed Business Activity SurveyNeutral8/16 2pm ET FOMC MinutesMixed8/17 8:30am ET Aug Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyPositive8/17 Manheim Aug Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value IndexTame8/23 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI Aug PrelimWeak8/25 10am ET Aug Final U Mich 1-yr inflationMixed8/28 10:30am ET Dallas Fed Aug Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame8/29 9am ET June S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame8/29 10am ET Aug Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame8/29 10 am ET Jul JOLTSTame8/31 8:30am ET July PCETame
Key incoming data July
7/3 10am ET June ISM ManufacturingTame7/6 8:15am ADP National Employment ReportHot7/6 10am ET June ISM ServicesTame7/6 10 am ET May JOLTSTame7/7 8:30am ET June Jobs reportMixed7/10 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index June FinalTame7/12 8:30am ET June CPITame7/13 8:30am ET June PPITame7/13 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker JuneTame7/14 10am ET U. Mich. June prelim 1-yr inflationMixed7/17 8:30am July Empire Manufacturing Survey7/18 8:30am July New York Fed Business Activity Survey7/18 10am July NAHB Housing Market Indexin-line7/18 Manheim July Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value IndexTame7/25 9am ET May S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame7/25 10am ET July Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame7/26 2pm ET July FOMC rates decisionTame7/28 8:30am ET June PCETame7/28 8:30am ET 2Q ECI Employment Cost IndexTame7/28 10am ET July Final U Mich 1-yr inflationTame
Key data from June
6/1 10am ET May ISM ManufacturingTame6/2 8:30am ET May Jobs reportTame6/5 10am ET May ISM ServicesTame6/7 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index MayTame6/9 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker AprilTame6/13 8:30am ET May CPITame6/14 8:30am ET May PPITame6/14 2pm ET April FOMC rates decisionTame6/16 10am ET U. Mich. May prelim 1-yr inflationTame6/27 9am ET April S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame6/27 10am ET June Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame6/30 8:30am ET May PCETame6/30 10am ET June Final U Mich 1-yr inflationTame
Key data from May
5/1 10am ET April ISM Manufacturing (PMIs turn up)Positive inflection5/2 10am ET Mar JOLTSSofter than consensus5/3 10am ET April ISM ServicesTame5/3 2pm Fed May FOMC rates decisionDovish5/5 8:30am ET April Jobs reportTame5/5 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index AprilTame5/8 2pm ET April 2023 Senior Loan Officer Opinion SurveyBetter than feared5/10 8:30am ET April CPITame5/11 8:30am ET April PPITame5/12 10am ET U. Mich. April prelim 1-yr inflationTame5/12 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker AprilTame5/24 2pm ET May FOMC minutesDovish5/26 8:30am ET PCE AprilTame5/26 10am ET U. Mich. April final 1-yr inflationTame5/31 10am ET JOLTS April job openings
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