Today is Palm Sunday, the start of an important week and we wish blessings and health to all of you.

Governor Cuomo just completed his daily briefing and for the first time, in a long time, he was pointing to some glimmers of positive inflection.  He was not declaring the peak, not at all, but he was noting that the incoming data broadly shows what can only be described as a "break in trend"

- Daily new cases +8,327 (4/4) down from recent two days of 10,841 (4/3) and 10,482 (4/2)
- Daily deaths +594 (4/4) vs 630 (4/3) and 562 (4/2)


But there is good news on the Healthcase utilization front as well

- Total new hospitalized +574 (4/4) vs 1,095 (4/3) and 1,427 (4/2) <-- HUGE decline in past 3 days
- Daily hospital discharges +1,709 (4/4) vs 1,592 (4/3) and 1,452 (4/2).
- Intubations+316 (4/4) vs 351 (4/3) and 260 (4/2).

Basically, on the hospital side, a big drop in new hospitalizations, flattening of those on ICU/intubations and more leaving the hospital.  This is probably the first daily update by Cuomo that was not littered with rising dread and urgent calls for more resources. 

Those are still needed, but it seems like NY state is trending towards/beating the optimistic case of a peak in 7 days (vs 14 to 28 of the 3 models he is using).



Daily cases is flattening and a move below 7,000 likely confirms it has peaked...
Daily cases is at 8,327 for NY state for 4/4.  This is down from the past two days (noted above) and follows a surge seen on the cases reported Friday.  Testing is way up and there is a tendency for some lumpiness.  And because of the '3 steps forward, two steps back' nature of daily case counts, we realize some will be reluctant to see any inflection until we break to the downside on-trend.

- This seems to suggest one cannot be conclusive on the downside break until daily cases fall towards the sub-7,000 as this would confirm a decline in cases, rather than flattening.

COVID-19 UPDATE. Notable positive tone by Cuomo on NY Sunday update. Cases down. Hospitalizations down. Intubations down. Discharges up.
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