Today is Palm Sunday, the start of an important week and we wish blessings and health to all of you.
Governor Cuomo just completed his daily briefing and for the first time, in a long time, he was pointing to some glimmers of positive inflection. He was not declaring the peak, not at all, but he was noting that the incoming data broadly shows what can only be described as a “break in trend”
– Daily new cases +8,327 (4/4) down from recent two days of 10,841 (4/3) and 10,482 (4/2)
– Daily deaths +594 (4/4) vs 630 (4/3) and 562 (4/2)
But there is good news on the Healthcase utilization front as well
– Total new hospitalized +574 (4/4) vs 1,095 (4/3) and 1,427 (4/2) <– HUGE decline in past 3 days
– Daily hospital discharges +1,709 (4/4) vs 1,592 (4/3) and 1,452 (4/2).
– Intubations+316 (4/4) vs 351 (4/3) and 260 (4/2).
Basically, on the hospital side, a big drop in new hospitalizations, flattening of those on ICU/intubations and more leaving the hospital. This is probably the first daily update by Cuomo that was not littered with rising dread and urgent calls for more resources.
Those are still needed, but it seems like NY state is trending towards/beating the optimistic case of a peak in 7 days (vs 14 to 28 of the 3 models he is using).
Daily cases is flattening and a move below 7,000 likely confirms it has peaked…
Daily cases is at 8,327 for NY state for 4/4. This is down from the past two days (noted above) and follows a surge seen on the cases reported Friday. Testing is way up and there is a tendency for some lumpiness. And because of the ‘3 steps forward, two steps back’ nature of daily case counts, we realize some will be reluctant to see any inflection until we break to the downside on-trend.
– This seems to suggest one cannot be conclusive on the downside break until daily cases fall towards the sub-7,000 as this would confirm a decline in cases, rather than flattening.
Daily deaths has broken its relentless rise…
This update was what gave Cuomo pause. He does not want to see the trend has changed, but he noted that daily deaths did not rise on 4/4, but instead was down slightly.
The trend in daily deaths was rising steadily ever since 3/24/2020, or 14 days of continuously rising reported daily deaths and even worse stories of impact on hospitals and morgues. Lots of New Yorkers are still dying, but the fact that the uptrend is no longer exponential, is a promising development.
New Hospitalizations plunged to 574, the lowest figure since March 20th, or reversing 16 days of rising new hospitalizations.
This is very good news. As many are aware, flattening the curve was all about making sure hospitals are not overwhelmed and that beds remain available for all critical patients. Not only COVID-19, but anyone getting sick. Therefore, seeing the number of new hospitalizations down is at a minimum, a step in the right direction.
– again, this could be a fluke, and so it is too early to conclude. But we can observe this is a meaningful break-in trend.
ICU intubations are flat and this remains elevated, similar to the daily deaths…
As the experience of other nations, South Korea, Italy, particularly have shown–daily cases peak well ahead of daily deaths. As cases lead to hospitalizations, which lead to ICU/intubations and which lead to daily deaths.
– So new hospitalizations should peak before intubations peak. And then deaths will peak.
– The flattening here is somewhat encouraging as it suggests that NY state has a bit more time to build the critical resources needed to deal with those cases requiring ventilators.
Finally, the trend we want to see go exponential, continues to rise… Daily discharged from hospitals.
The daily discharges from hospitals are rising at an exponential rate. This is good. More cases are being resolved.
– We have not heard from NY whether any treatment regimens are providing better outcomes. And we would be most interested to see if HCL (hydroxychloroquine + z-paks) is indeed aiding in recovery.
Bottom line, this is further glimmers of hope. NY state is the epicenter of COVID-19 in the US, with the worst outbreak and infection rate. Based on total cases, nearly 5,000 per 1 million residents have COVID-19 or 1 in 200. Thus, a break in the upward trajectory of infection provides a framework to see the rest of the country.
And as we noted last week, the top 8 most important states (GDP terms, that is) are mostly outperforming NY. These 8 states are 50% of GDP. And when NY passes its peak, the country can start to think about the economic timeline to restart the economy.
It does seem like NY state is beating the “optimistic” case for COVID-19 and potentially points to the country as a whole beating the “base case” put forth by the White House. Currently, the White House is saying the country should brace for a horrible two weeks. And NY state could be a bright spot during those two weeks.
We will have a more detailed update this evening.