VIDEO: Today saw the first signs that the “Trump put” might be returning. But growth worries weigh on stocks.
Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:55).
After two promising days, Thursday’s market action was disappointing, with broad-based weakness pushing the S&P 500 to its 200-day moving average. The index has now declined 7%, naturally raising investor concerns. However, there is a potential positive development emerging—evidence that the “Trump put” might be coming back into play.
- The White House has focused on lowering interest rates rather than actively supporting equity markets. This differs from the first Trump administration, where both the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 performed better. However, the recent stock market drawdown appears to have triggered a shift in rhetoric from Trump and his team.
- As per CNBC, Commerce Secretary Lutnick stated that the administration is considering a full USMCA reprieve.
- The White House may not have anticipated how quickly tariff uncertainty could weigh on the economy, as seen in the Challenger job report, which showed a surge in job cuts driven by retail weakness and other factors.
- Despite this potential policy shift, markets remain concerned about a broader growth scare.
- The bond market has been pricing in a much more dovish stance than the Fed. A week ago, the market saw only a 10% chance of a Fed rate cut in May, but this has jumped to 47%.
- If conditions worsen, expectations for a cut could rise toward 100%.
- Fed Governor Chris Waller discussed tariffs today, acknowledging their one-time effects but noting the difficulty in disentangling their impact from other economic factors.
- The key question remains: should investors worry about a recession? While some economic indicators have softened, global performance suggests otherwise.
- Germany and China are outperforming relative to the U.S. under Trump 2.0, which would be unlikely if the U.S. were slipping into recession.
- The next major catalyst is Friday’s jobs report, where the market expects 160,000 jobs. A weak number could reinforce the return of both the “Trump put” and the “Fed put,” limiting downside risk for stocks.
- Mark Newton notes that while the last couple of days have been disappointing, patience is essential. The market needs time to turn a corner, but sitting out entirely may not be the best approach.
Bottom line: A gauntlet of a week, but stay on target




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Key incoming data March:
3/3 9:45 AM ET: Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame3/3 10:00 AM ET: Feb ISM Manufacturing PMITame3/5 9:45 AM ET: Feb F S&P Global Services PMITame3/5 10:00 AM ET: Feb ISM Services PMITame3/5 10:00 AM ET: Jan F Durable Goods OrdersTame3/5 2:00 PM ET: Mar Fed Releases Beige BookTame3/6 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Non-Farm ProductivityTame3/6 8:30 AM ET: Jan Trade BalanceTame3/6 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Unit Labor CostsTame- 3/7 8:30 AM ET: Feb Non-Farm Payrolls
- 3/7 9:00 AM ET: Feb F Manheim Used Vehicle index
- 3/10 11:00 AM ET: Feb NY Fed 1yr Inf Exp
- 3/11 6:00 AM ET: Feb Small Business Optimism Survey
- 3/11 10:00 AM ET: Jan JOLTS Job Openings
- 3/12 8:30 AM ET: Feb CPI
- 3/13 8:30 AM ET: Feb PPI
- 3/14 10:00 AM ET: Mar P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
- 3/17 8:30 AM ET: Feb Retail Sales Data
- 3/17 8:30 AM ET: Mar Empire Manufacturing Survey
- 3/17 10:00 AM ET: Mar NAHB Housing Market Index
- 3/19 9:00 AM ET: Mar M Manheim Used Vehicle index
- 3/19 2:00 PM ET: Mar FOMC Decision
- 3/19 4:00 PM ET: Jan Net TIC Flows
- 3/20 8:30 AM ET: Mar Philly Fed Business Outlook
- 3/20 10:00 AM ET: Feb Existing Home Sales
- 3/24 8:30 AM ET: Feb Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
- 3/24 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
- 3/24 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Services PMI
- 3/25 9:00 AM ET: Jan S&P CoreLogic CS home price
- 3/25 10:00 AM ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer Confidence
- 3/25 10:00 AM ET: Feb New Home Sales
- 3/26 10:00 AM ET: Feb p Durable Goods Orders
- 3/27 8:30 AM ET: 4Q T GDP
- 3/28 8:30 AM ET: Feb PCE Deflator
- 3/28 10:00 AM ET: Mar F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
- 3/31 10:30 AM ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
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