Today is first signs "Trump put" returning.  But stocks weaken as markets see a deteriorating economic outlook.  Friday jobs key

VIDEO: Today saw the first signs that the “Trump put” might be returning.  But growth worries weigh on stocks.

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Today is first signs Trump put returning.  But stocks weaken as markets see a deteriorating economic outlook.  Friday jobs key

After two promising days, Thursday’s market action was disappointing, with broad-based weakness pushing the S&P 500 to its 200-day moving average. The index has now declined 7%, naturally raising investor concerns. However, there is a potential positive development emerging—evidence that the “Trump put” might be coming back into play.

  • The White House has focused on lowering interest rates rather than actively supporting equity markets. This differs from the first Trump administration, where both the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 performed better. However, the recent stock market drawdown appears to have triggered a shift in rhetoric from Trump and his team.
    • As per CNBC, Commerce Secretary Lutnick stated that the administration is considering a full USMCA reprieve.
    • The White House may not have anticipated how quickly tariff uncertainty could weigh on the economy, as seen in the Challenger job report, which showed a surge in job cuts driven by retail weakness and other factors.
  • Despite this potential policy shift, markets remain concerned about a broader growth scare.
    • The bond market has been pricing in a much more dovish stance than the Fed. A week ago, the market saw only a 10% chance of a Fed rate cut in May, but this has jumped to 47%.
    • If conditions worsen, expectations for a cut could rise toward 100%.
  • Fed Governor Chris Waller discussed tariffs today, acknowledging their one-time effects but noting the difficulty in disentangling their impact from other economic factors.
  • The key question remains: should investors worry about a recession? While some economic indicators have softened, global performance suggests otherwise.
    • Germany and China are outperforming relative to the U.S. under Trump 2.0, which would be unlikely if the U.S. were slipping into recession.
  • The next major catalyst is Friday’s jobs report, where the market expects 160,000 jobs. A weak number could reinforce the return of both the “Trump put” and the “Fed put,” limiting downside risk for stocks.
  • Mark Newton notes that while the last couple of days have been disappointing, patience is essential. The market needs time to turn a corner, but sitting out entirely may not be the best approach.

Bottom line: A gauntlet of a week, but stay on target

Today is first signs Trump put returning.  But stocks weaken as markets see a deteriorating economic outlook.  Friday jobs key
Today is first signs Trump put returning.  But stocks weaken as markets see a deteriorating economic outlook.  Friday jobs key
Today is first signs Trump put returning.  But stocks weaken as markets see a deteriorating economic outlook.  Friday jobs key
Today is first signs Trump put returning.  But stocks weaken as markets see a deteriorating economic outlook.  Friday jobs key

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Today is first signs Trump put returning.  But stocks weaken as markets see a deteriorating economic outlook.  Friday jobs key
Today is first signs Trump put returning.  But stocks weaken as markets see a deteriorating economic outlook.  Friday jobs key
Today is first signs Trump put returning.  But stocks weaken as markets see a deteriorating economic outlook.  Friday jobs key
Today is first signs Trump put returning.  But stocks weaken as markets see a deteriorating economic outlook.  Friday jobs key
Today is first signs Trump put returning.  But stocks weaken as markets see a deteriorating economic outlook.  Friday jobs key
Today is first signs Trump put returning.  But stocks weaken as markets see a deteriorating economic outlook.  Friday jobs key
Today is first signs Trump put returning.  But stocks weaken as markets see a deteriorating economic outlook.  Friday jobs key
Today is first signs Trump put returning.  But stocks weaken as markets see a deteriorating economic outlook.  Friday jobs key
Today is first signs Trump put returning.  But stocks weaken as markets see a deteriorating economic outlook.  Friday jobs key
Today is first signs Trump put returning.  But stocks weaken as markets see a deteriorating economic outlook.  Friday jobs key
Today is first signs Trump put returning.  But stocks weaken as markets see a deteriorating economic outlook.  Friday jobs key
Today is first signs Trump put returning.  But stocks weaken as markets see a deteriorating economic outlook.  Friday jobs key
Today is first signs Trump put returning.  But stocks weaken as markets see a deteriorating economic outlook.  Friday jobs key
Today is first signs Trump put returning.  But stocks weaken as markets see a deteriorating economic outlook.  Friday jobs key

Key incoming data March:

  • 3/3 9:45 AM ET: Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 3/3 10:00 AM ET: Feb ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 3/5 9:45 AM ET: Feb F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
  • 3/5 10:00 AM ET: Feb ISM Services PMI Tame
  • 3/5 10:00 AM ET: Jan F Durable Goods Orders Tame
  • 3/5 2:00 PM ET: Mar Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
  • 3/6 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Non-Farm Productivity Tame
  • 3/6 8:30 AM ET: Jan Trade Balance Tame
  • 3/6 8:30 AM ET: 4Q F Unit Labor Costs Tame
  • 3/7 8:30 AM ET: Feb Non-Farm Payrolls
  • 3/7 9:00 AM ET: Feb F Manheim Used Vehicle index
  • 3/10 11:00 AM ET: Feb NY Fed 1yr Inf Exp
  • 3/11 6:00 AM ET: Feb Small Business Optimism Survey
  • 3/11 10:00 AM ET: Jan JOLTS Job Openings
  • 3/12 8:30 AM ET: Feb CPI
  • 3/13 8:30 AM ET: Feb PPI
  • 3/14 10:00 AM ET: Mar P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
  • 3/17 8:30 AM ET: Feb Retail Sales Data
  • 3/17 8:30 AM ET: Mar Empire Manufacturing Survey
  • 3/17 10:00 AM ET: Mar NAHB Housing Market Index
  • 3/19 9:00 AM ET: Mar M Manheim Used Vehicle index
  • 3/19 2:00 PM ET: Mar FOMC Decision
  • 3/19 4:00 PM ET: Jan Net TIC Flows
  • 3/20 8:30 AM ET: Mar Philly Fed Business Outlook
  • 3/20 10:00 AM ET: Feb Existing Home Sales
  • 3/24 8:30 AM ET: Feb Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
  • 3/24 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
  • 3/24 9:45 AM ET: Mar P S&P Global Services PMI
  • 3/25 9:00 AM ET: Jan S&P CoreLogic CS home price
  • 3/25 10:00 AM ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer Confidence
  • 3/25 10:00 AM ET: Feb New Home Sales
  • 3/26 10:00 AM ET: Feb p Durable Goods Orders
  • 3/27 8:30 AM ET: 4Q T GDP
  • 3/28 8:30 AM ET: Feb PCE Deflator
  • 3/28 10:00 AM ET: Mar F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
  • 3/31 10:30 AM ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2025:

Today is first signs Trump put returning.  But stocks weaken as markets see a deteriorating economic outlook.  Friday jobs key

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2024:

Today is first signs Trump put returning.  But stocks weaken as markets see a deteriorating economic outlook.  Friday jobs key

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2023:

Today is first signs Trump put returning.  But stocks weaken as markets see a deteriorating economic outlook.  Friday jobs key

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