While some recent polling shows a slight shift in favor of former President Trump, the total of polling continues to show an extremely tight race that either candidate could win. No poll shows either candidate with a lead that exceeds the poll’s margin of error.
While most of the polling data that makes national news is the meaningless national popular vote numbers, individual state polls that are a better way of looking at the race, also show the key states are a statistical tie.
With early voting underway in several states both campaigns will shift their focus to get out the vote activities. Harris needs to hold all the swing states that Biden won in 2020 with slim majorities. If Harris can win in the three states that Trump won in 2016 but Biden flipped in 2020, Harris would have the minimum number of 270 Electoral votes. Those three states are MN, MI, and PA. A Trump victory in any one of these states would make a Democratic victory very tough. This explains why both candidates are spending so much time in the closing days on MI and PA.
Looking at the key swing states makes the point that the race for the US Presidency is not a national popular vote contest, but a battle to get 270 Electoral votes.
Senate
Both parties are also focused on the battle for control of the Senate. While Democrats currently have a one seat majority in the Senate of 51 D to 49 R, the retirement of WV Senator Joe Manchin and the near certainty that Republicans will pick up the seat, the Senate enters Election Day tied.
Of the 34 seats up on Election Day, 23 are currently held by Democrats. Recent polling in MT where Senator John Tester has been able to withstand the sharp Republican swing in the state shows that his Republican challenger Tim Sheehy has a lead above the margin of error. The average is a seven-point Sheehy lead, tough for Tester to overcome in the next two weeks.
Republicans also are looking at competitive races in OH, PA, MI, NV and AZ. Democrats believe they have strong challengers for Senator Scott in FL and Senator Cruz in TX. While polls show the races tight, all the polling shows the Republican candidate in the lead.
At this point it looks like Republicans will be able to take control of the Senate, creating a legislative obstacle to VP Harris if she is the winner of the Presidential race.
House
With 435 races, and only a four seat Republican majority, the outcome is viewed as too close to call. There is very little polling on House races, and the Republicans are defending seats in both CA and NY that they won in 2022 that will be close with Democratic Presidential coattails this election cycle.
It also demonstrates that a Trump win could provide coattails for a Republican sweep of both the Senate and the House in the most competitive races.
Global risk
The aftermath of last week’s killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar saw President Biden and other world leaders call for a cease fire by Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu seemed undeterred in continuing actions in both Gaza and Lebanon. With the swing state of MI having the largest Muslim population of in the US, the war in the Middle East is having an impact on candidates fighting for Michigan’s 15 electoral votes.
World leaders are applying pressure on Israel to respond to the missile attacks on Israel with a targeted response that could be viewed as retaliatory but not an escalation. This may have not been helped with a reported missile targeted at the Prime Minister’s home. While there have been reports circulating that Israel has agreed to limit its strikes to military targets in Iran, the current Israeli government has not always followed the advice of its supporters relative to the current wars in Gaza and Lebanon.
