Markets Climb After FOMC Week and Strong Economic Data

“You can never invite the wind, but you must leave the window open.” ~Bruce Lee

Good evening:

Investors had a lot to absorb this week, with earnings season ramping up and big Tech names reporting mostly strong quarterly results. We saw action from central banks around the world, beginning with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and followed by the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan later in the week. And we ended the week with what Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee called a “trifecta” of good economic news, and what Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton described as an “almost Goldilocks” data situation.

As just about everyone – including those of us at Fundstrat – expected, the FOMC on Wednesday opted for a +25bp rate hike. Many focused more attention on the post-meeting press conference by Fed Chair Jay Powell. As Lee put it, “It is the qualitative views around the Fed’s sense of progress on the inflation war that matter.” 

Powell noted that Fed staffers are no longer forecasting a recession. He acknowledged that “June CPI data came in better than expectations.” And perhaps most importantly, he explicitly said that the Fed would stop hiking before it reached its 2% target, as long as the Fed saw more data to support the view that inflation is “com...
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