- Government shutdown deadline March 14 approaches
- Politics of debt ceiling increase
- Reconciliation to pass Trump programs
- Musk attacks waste in government
- Fed Chair Powell testifies Tuesday and Wednesday
- Trump and Putin first talks
Congress faces two deadlines that will require action by Congress and the president working together. The politics of the coming months is complicated by the close partisan divide in Congress. Senate Republicans are working with a three-seat majority. Meanwhile, the House, with its three Republican vacancies, is working with a one-seat majority.
The first deadline is March 14 when the current Continuing Resolution (CR) expires. Without action, there will be a government shutdown. The second deadline has yet to be established, but the Treasury has announced that they have reached the statutory debt ceiling and their extraordinary funding measures can only be pursued for a few more months, after which action will need to be taken.
In addition to these deadlines, there is a push among Republicans to act on the president’s agenda. That includes immigration and deportations, more money for the military, new rules and funding to develop U.S. energy resources, and perhaps most important to the president, extending or turning his 2017 tax program that expires at year end into permanent one. The preferred legislative tool to get the agenda passed is a Budget Reconciliation Bill, which is a budget bill that would cut spending, include tax policy, and is exempt from a Senate filibuster.
At the beginning of the year, many in Washington, D.C., thought that the Reconciliation Bill could be used as a vehicle to increase or suspend the debt ceiling. However, in recent weeks, that strategy has slipped, as there are very conservative House Republicans who have never voted to increase the debt ceiling. There is a growing concern that even with the Reconciliation Bill including the Trump programs, these conservative Republicans would still vote a no. Their leaders have made the point that even a call from the president won’t sway some of these members. When the House was acting on a CR earlier this year and the speaker wanted to raise the debt ceiling for Trump, 38 House Republicans voted a no despite the support of their leader.
The slim House Republican majority, while dominated by hardcore conservatives, has several members from swing districts in blue states such as California and New York. In fact, it is these blue state Republicans who allowed the Party to maintain their narrow control. These members could find it hard to support a CR or Reconciliation Bill that cuts large sums from programs that are important for their states.
Added to all these concerns is a real inside the Beltway issue of whether the Reconciliation Bill should pass in one huge bill or be divided into two packages. The Senate Republicans want to divide the issues into two bills, while House Republicans believe their best chances of having a united party vote is to put everything into one bill. While seemingly legislative minutia, it could be a key decision point in passing the Trump agenda.
Musk DOGE work
Headlines this past week have been dominated by Elon Musk and his team’s quick actions to identify and cut what they see as wasteful government spending. But wasteful spending can often be in the eyes of the beholder.
USAID may be a good example.
While there are many programs that have been identified as wasteful, USAID is a major source of spending in agricultural America. American farmers grow more food than Americans can eat, and this food surplus has been a tool in American foreign policy, as USAID has fed the hungry in poor nations around the globe. The farm belt of America is represented by Republicans and some farm state Senators are growing concerned about the food aid programs. This is an example where the DOGE team may need some political experience to pursue the broader agenda of eliminating waste and mismanagement.
Several of the initiatives have been challenged in court, and Democratic members of Congress have said that the DOGE programs may make Democratic participation in the bills to extend the CR or increase the debt ceiling impossible.
To date, Trump has been supportive of the work of Musk and his team, and over time the President’s support will be a key point to watch. Musk can only be successful with the support of the President who gave him the power to act.
Powell Testimony
Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell goes up to Capitol Hill this week for his semiannual report to Congress. Powell will appear before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, and the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.
Trump and Putin
Over the weekend, Trump told reporters that he has been in contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin. While neither the president nor the White House gave much detail on the talks, the assumption is that the lead topic was Ukraine─and also Iran, Israel, and the Middle East.
When he was a presidential candidate, Trump talked about his ability to work with President Putin to end the war in Ukraine. In his comments over the weekend, he spoke about the needless deaths of young men on both sides caused by the war. He even reflected on his position as a dad and his own sons. The Putin/Trump relationship could lead to talks on Ukraine in the coming days.
