The Presidential race remains close. While polling has become less reliable it does show trends, and the trend remains a very close race for President.
Former President Trump was in the battleground state of Pennsylvania over the weekend, returning to the spot where he faced his first assassination attempt. As many have pointed out, the race has changed dramatically since that fateful day in July. With the withdrawal of President Biden, and the nomination of Vice President Harris the large Trump lead has disappeared, and the race is now a tossup.
The Harris/Walz ticket is responding to charges of not facing the press by scheduling appearances ranging from Walz on Fox News to the Vice President going on 60 Minutes. Both sides are focusing on the handful of states that are likely to decide the race.
Voters are reading a wide array of national polls, but the election is not determined by who gets the most votes nationally. Indeed, in recent years the Democratic candidate gets more total votes but loses the contest. In 2016 President Trump won 306 Electoral College votes, to 232 for Hillary Clinton. But Mrs. Clinton won the popular vote by 3 million votes: 62.9 million Trump to 65.8 million for Clinton. Democrats tend to run up large leads in large population states such as California, New York and Illinois, but Republicans win in the farm belt and South where there are fewer people.
Large states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and North Carolina are likely to be key to an Electoral College win but for Trump or Harris, the magic number is 270 to win.
Dock workers
What looked like it may be an “October surprise,” mainly a crippling strike by dock workers at ports along the Atlantic and Gulf ports was tentatively settled after two days and workers have returned to their jobs. President Biden had said he would not invoke the Taft-Hartley Act to force workers back to work, but behind the scenes Administration officials were busy talking to both sides to end the strike. By the end of the week the workers had returned to work with a sizeable pay increase, and issues of work rules and atomization at the ports was delayed until mid-January.
Hurricane Helene
A massive hurricane created widespread horrific damage in several states, but the bulk of the catastrophe was in the two key electoral states of Georgia and North Carolina. Both sides worked hard to demonstrate their commitment to helping those hard hit by the floods and the winds.
One immediate issue was whether or not the government had the needed funds to rush assistance to the disaster areas of the Southeast. At one point President Biden threatened to bring Congress back for a special session but that appears to not be necessary. However, the emergency response system may be further tested this week as a new hurricane grows in the Gulf of Mexico.
Global Tensions
On the anniversary of the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, the world is holding its collective breath as Israel readies its response to the firing by Iran of 180 ballistic missiles at Israel. Will the Israeli government listen to many of its allies that want a measured response or will the Netanyahu government hit strategic sensitive targets that could range from oil refineries to Iran’s nuclear sites.
The US is in the middle of a very tight campaign and the Israeli attack could become the next issue for the two candidates to focus on. With only 30 days until the United States goes to the polls, the seriousness of these global tensions cannot be underestimated,
