Congress heads home for Memorial Day not returning until June 14. At one point Memorial Day was viewed as a deadline for negotiations trying to get a bipartisan infrastructure bill but talks seem poised to continue into June. The White House and a group of Senate Republicans led by West Virginia Senator Shelly Moore Capito continue to exchange drafts. On Friday the White House gave the Republicans a new offer of $1.7B which is much larger than the $800B Mitch McConnell indicated was his ceiling. The President remains very involved and seems motivated to find a compromise that allows him to deliver on his campaign promise of more bipartisanship, but the two sides seem far apart.

Washington pundits are talking more and more that President Biden is looking for a Washington that simply doesn’t exist anymore, one from his Senate days when Republicans and Democrats worked across the aisle on issues. There remains some hope that a bipartisan infrastructure bill based on “traditional” infrastructure can be approved, but time is the enemy of a bipartisan agreement. Democrats are likely to need a Budget Reconciliation Bill to get some of the less traditional infrastructure ideas from low income housing to removal of lead pipes; and absent agreement, Democrats will incorporate the traditional infrastructure into the mix. July 4th, and the next Congressional break, seems like the next deadline for deciding on the infrastructure package.

Democrats are well aware of the daunting challenge they have defending their narrow majorities. In off-year Congressional elections the party controlling the White House has lost seats in 37 of the 40 elections that have occurred since the Civil War. If Democrats are to have any chance of beating the odds, a popular infrastructure package is part of the strategy. Budget Reconciliation was the pathway used to pass the Covid Relief Bill and could be used again. I continue to believe that a broad based infrastructure bill will pass later this year. Chance of a bill in my view – 75%.

1/6 Commission House vote

US House members are up for election every two years; for this reason more than Senators they tend to have a close hand on the pulse of their constituents. It is for this reason that I believe it is significant that 35 House Republicans broke with their leadership and supported the proposal to create a 1/6 Commission.

The group of House Republicans who voted for the Commission represented a wide array of Members in both geography and ideology. They all face two challenges: first winning a Republican primary and then winning in November. For each Member who voted “YEA” they increase the chance that a pro-Trump primary challenge could be in the wings. The vote may represent a growing view by independents’ that the events of 1/6 were significant. Any inquiry is likely to reflect poorly on President Trump and those Republicans who supported the rally to “Stop The Steal.”

As discussed above, the Party controlling the White House usually loses seats in the off-year election, but a popular Joe Biden and concern about the actions on 1/6 give Democrats hope that they may be able to defy the odds and hold the House and Senate. A 1/6 Commission giving its report as the 2022 campaign year begins could be a factor in November 2022.

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