Budget Bill Progress; Relief Package Deal Still Possible

Congress appears ready to pass a Continuing Resolution (CR) to fund the government until after the election and avoid a government shutdown on Thursday. Last week there appeared to be a deadlock as the Administration was insisting that the CR contain funding for the Department of Agriculture Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) which pays farmers hard hit by tariffs and the coronavirus. House Democrats opposed the idea, but after Republicans agreed to add $8 billion for food and nutrition programs, a deal was struck this week.

The White House and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi worked together and got a strong bipartisan vote of 359 to 57. The bill must still pass the Senate and Senate leadership will vote on the bill Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

On the relief front, while both Speaker Pelosi and Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin expressed a willingness to talk, no talks have taken place. The Speaker is still stuck on her offer of the past several weeks with a bill totaling $2.4T. The White House is willing to go well beyond the Senate Republicans proposal of $650B and has endorsed a bipartisan proposal totaling $1.5B; but this has been rejected by the Speaker.

Next Friday the Department of Labor will release the September unemployment numbers and maybe this could jumpstart the talks. But on Thursday, the Speaker announced that next week the House will pass a $2.4T package, and while $1T below the HEROES Act passed in May, it is well above the level acceptable to Republicans.

With broad agreement on relief measures including unemployment payments, individual stimulus checks, replenished PPP loans for small businesses, money for schools, testing and USPS in my view a deal is reachable, but it requires more give on the part of the Speaker than she has shown in past weeks.

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