Another Congressional COVID19 Relief Bill Expected to Pass

L . Thomas Block

Congress returns on Monday, July 20, and a rush to pass a Phase 4 coronavirus (COVID-19) relief bill is expected. Monday or Tuesday Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell is expected to unveil the Republican alternative to the $3.5 trillion bill the House passed in May. While there have been no direct negotiations, ideas have been exchanged in the press and some behind the scenes talks at the staff level.

With Thursday’s new unemployment claim holding at around 1.3 million, and 17 weeks above 1 million; a primary focus will be the $600 a week supplemental unemployment benefit that was created in the CARES Act in March.

It expires on July 31, and while Republicans had opposed renewal there appears to be a consensus emerging that a total cutoff could have dire consequences but also agreement that $600 may be too high a benefit level. A lower weekly unemployment benefit may be partially offset with a second round of stimulus payments.

House Democrats didn’t include any business liability protection in their legislation while Republicans have called it a red line in the upcoming legislation. Expect House Speaker Pelosi to make an agreement on this issue which could include some stronger provisions to help OSHA enforce workplace safety standards. Small business could be helped with a new round of PPP loans.

Another area where compromise is developing is aid to state and local governments. Republicans, who had been reluctant to support this idea, appear to be moving to support with the proviso that money be earmarked for education. As returning to the in-person classroom has taken on a partisan edge all sides agree that a return to in-person education will require additional resources for pre-K through 12 and I expect funding in the upcoming COVID19 bill to combine education money with state and local assistance.

This week the President sent out word that he again will insist on relief for the payroll tax; but so far Senate Republicans have not embraced the President’s idea. Some Republicans continue to cling to some level of fiscal restraint and losing revenue by providing benefits to workers who have jobs when the focus of legislation is aimed at helping those who don’t have a job seems like an unlikely winner.

I will be watching to see if the idea makes it into the McConnell package which will be released early next week.

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L . Thomas Block
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