While Congress is out of session until July 20th, a consensus continues to build that another large relief bill is likely to come together at the end of July or first week of August. There is general agreement that the $2 trillion CARES Act helped save the economy from a depression; and that with its main provisions expiring new revised programs are needed. Talks have begun both in public and behind the scenes.

The centerpiece of the CARES Act was a $1,200 individual relief check that went to most individuals with an income below $99,000, there is talk of another individual check but with a lower qualifying income threshold. The supplemental unemployment payment of $600 a week expires on July 31 and there is a growing view that the economy is not ready for a complete cutoff of these payments. Current talks are focused on the idea of smaller payments and perhaps adding a “bonus” payment when someone goes back into the workforce.

The PPP small business loan program, while getting bad press for some questionable loans, overall has gotten a great deal of support. Over the past few months the program was modified as small businesses complained and there are serious talks of having a new round of loans but more targeted for genuinely small businesses. Perhaps the most contentious component will be to what extent the federal government should give money to state and local governments, but talks on this issue have yet to begin.

It has been another challenging week for the President with his two appointments to the Supreme Court joining a 7 to 2 majority ruling that he will need to comply with a subpoena from New York, the continued spiking in coronavirus spread, and weak poll numbers.

November is a long way off in terms of political cycles but it shows the challenges the President faces.

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