Killing of Iranian General Pushes Impeachment Out of the Limelight
President Donald Trump didn’t wait long to make good on a Dec. 31 tweeted threat to Iran. The assassination of Iranian General Qassam Soleimani Thursday, probably the number two man in Iran, threatens to upend investor calculations about oil and the Middle East. Unsurprisingly, oil rose over 2% to about $62.50 per barrel.
A major question over the coming days will be whether President Trump becomes a successful crisis management leader when America comes under a revenge attack from Iran, or will he lead by tweeting when personal action is required. Events over the weekend may tell how Iranian/US events will impact the impeachment process as the President and Congress return to Washington, D.C. Will there be a crisis atmosphere coming together or will both sides be looking for fights, in order to draw battle lines in anticipation of the 2020 election?
While events on the crisis with Iran will dominate the news, on the positive front the White House announced a January 15 signing date for the US/China Phase One deal, though no language has been released. Similarly, on the trade front the first order of business for the Senate Finance Committee next week will be consideration of the USMCA, the replacement for NAFTA, and the trade agreement seems ripe for an early 2020 win for the President.
On the negative side we will have to see how the global crisis impacts impeachment. While the House of Representatives outcome is just about preordained, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Democratic Leader Charles Schumer will need to come up with a party strategy on how to proceed. The current program of holding the impeachment resolution hostage in the House doesn’t seem like a long-term plan.
However, Democrats are right to be concerned that President Trump will cheer his eventual Senate victory as vindication of his Presidency. With a 53 to 47 divide it will take four Republicans to vote with united Democrats to call witnesses. While witnesses are very unlikely to change the outcome, they will drag out the process which, ironically, I believe helps the President in the long run.
The crisis with Iran complicates the picture. Will the crisis unite the country behind the President or will Democrats be able to move the focus back to their issues such as healthcare, prescription drugs, climate change, infrastructure, etc.? While Pelosi and the House will try to move the focus to these issues; it will be nearly impossible to get airtime as long as the Iranian crisis and impeachment are the lead stories every night.
Figure: Top Trump Tweets
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