Impeachment House Distraction May be Good News for Trump

The potential impeachment of President Donald Trump and the ongoing military conflict in Syria continue to dominate the headlines, with little else able to generate interest. Ironically, this could be good news for the President, as the Democrats’ 2018 gains were due to Americans’ concern with health insurance, prescription drugs, and climate change. But these Democratic issues have been pushed aside in the headlong dive into impeachment. Indeed, the Democratic debate got little attention in this environment.

Nevertheless, Mick Mulvaney, the acting chief of staff, seems to have dug the hole deeper for President in the House of Representatives, when Mulvaney admitted in a press conference that a Ukrainian military aide was held hostage to political agenda. It seems hard to see how Mulvaney can survive as Trump is likely to look for scapegoat for political mess the chief of staff created, or how he can walk back a comment said at the White House briefing room and taped by all the media outlets. With the troubles in Syria, China trade talks, and impeachment imbroglio, President Trump will need some help to manage the issues, and it will be a tough time to look for a fourth chief of staff.

Though the trade talks with China apparently have taken a back seat to impeachment and Syria, negotiations have continued to finalize language on the agreement announced by the President last week. It appears that whatever finally emerges will be formally adopted by both countries at the APEC meeting in Chile on November 16-17. However, with the meeting nearly a month away, issues ranging from Hong Kong protests to a change of heart by a mercurial president could cause problems for the deal and see a renewal of tariff hikes. The market won’t like that.

On the budget front, the Senate fell well short of the margin needed to override a Presidential veto of legislation that would void a funds transfer to border wall building from the military budget. While ten Republicans supported the override it would require 20 Republicans to get to the 2/3rds majority. Last year it was a deadlock over the wall that cause the government shutdown, and the same issue could emerge as a deal breaker next month as the new deadline of November 21 approaches. The President will need to weigh the benefit of the crisis environment he seems to relish versus the pain that can be caused by a government shutdown.

Across the Atlantic, this weekend all eyes will be on London where the Parliament is scheduled to vote on Saturday on the Brexit agreement Prime Minister Boris Johnson reached with the EU. It appears the Northern Ireland Unionists are not willing to vote with the Conservatives, meaning Johnson will have to find some support among independents, Labor or Liberal Democrats to break with their party and support the Brexit plan. There are nearly 20 Labor members who represent districts that voted for Brexit and they are the likely targets of last-minute bargaining in the House of Commons.

Figure: Top Trump Tweets

Impeachment House Distraction May be Good News for Trump
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