It's likely to be a long weekend for Mexican and US trade negotiators, as both sides try to come up with a mutually acceptable exit strategy for President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs on goods coming in from Mexico.

Unusually, Trump’s Mexico tariff is triggered not by economic issues but will be imposed unless “Mexico substantially stops the illegal inflow of aliens coming through its territory.” The President has been insistent that he is not bluffing and that the tariffs will take effect Monday, June 10.

Meanwhile, Senate Republicans reportedly had a tense session with White House representatives and have threatened to pass legislation to stop the tariff with a veto proof majority. That’s probably a stunt, and unlikely to come to pass. President Trump still enjoys record approval from the Republican base, and the senators know that.

On another trade front, this will be a big weekend. US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is scheduled to meet with People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang in preliminary talks at a gathering of G-20 finance leaders in Japan, leading up to the G20 summit at the end of the month. At this point it’s not clear if they will have formal talks to restart trade negotiations but there will be a close watch if they schedule time together.


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