Using seven-day comparisons, there is now steady progress in coronavirus (COVID-19) cases in the U.S. each week. I still think we need to watch day-to-day changes and spot sustained dislocations, but the trend clearly shows US COVID-19 cases are slowing.

There is also progress on the re-opening front, with more and more signs of an America returning to normalcy. Texas Gov Greg Abbott announced professional sports will allow fans to attend with 25% capacity, a major step. Walt Disney’s (DIS) re-open plans suggest the "social distance" victim businesses are proving they are finding ways to adapt. Again, American businesses are survivors and adaptable.

The market rose about 3% this short trading week, with a pronounced strong relative performance by the "epicenter" groups (Discretionary, Financials, Industrials and Energy). For the most part, it appears the US is now past the bottom on the peak on COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths, on economic fundamentals, and on equities. If these three points are correct, then this is the time for "epicenter" (aka cyclicals) to lead.

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POINT #1: While daily COVID-19 cases have surging ups and downs, if we look at 7-day changes in COVID-19 reported cases, we can see sustained improvements on a week over week basis, e...

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