NY COVID-19 Experience Should Be Template for U.S. Cases

Equity markets are weak to kick off the second quarter, as investors continue to struggle with the combination of U.S. coronavirus case growth and the concurrent weakening fundamentals of the economy. Although markets are down broadly, there is less of the "sell everything" panic feel in markets and even the VIX, while at 50, remains below the 80s seen a week ago. The upcoming 1Q EPS season could be a test of the market’s bottoming

The White House has spoken of 100,000 to 250,000 total U.S. deaths and a crisis peaking in 4-6 weeks from now, but the template to watch remains New York City and New York State, where the first real exponential breakout took place. The latest data shows that NYC “new cases” have been flat for five consecutive days, which could mean the market will bottom before the jobless claims peak. The next few days will bring COVID-19’s economic carnage (secondary front) into focus, with jobless claims, employment reports and the start of 1Q earnings reports.

You are trying to access FSI member-only content.
You need to have an active FSI Macro, or FSI Pro subcription in order to read this article.
If you are already a member at FSInsight, please Sign In here. If you don’t have a subscription to FSInsight yet, you can sign up below.

Choose one of our yearly plans to save nearly 20%

We accept crypto via BitPay for yearly subscriptions.
    • Macro
      FSI Macro
      billed anually
      Get access to all the macro research on FSInsight
      • Tom Lee's First Word
      • View from Tom Lee
      • Signal From Noise
      • Portfolio Strategy
      • Technical Analysis
      • Granny Shots – Stock Ideas
      • US Policy
      • Live Conference Calls with Q&A
      First Month Free!
    • Crypto
      FSI Digital Assets
      billed anually
      Get access to all the crypto research on FSInsight
      • Crypto Blasts
      • Tom's Take on Crypto
      • Crypto Weekly Newsletter
      • BitDigest Daily Newsletter
      • Crypto Technical Analysis
      • Benchmark Indices Review
      • Bitcoin Valuation & Misery Indexes
      • Live Conference Calls with Q&A
      First Month Free!
    • Macro + Crypto
      FSI Pro
      billed anually
      Get access to all the exclusive research on FSInsight
      • Looking at code?
      • I am hidden!
      • FSI Macro
      • +
      • FSI Digital Assets
      • Designed by
      • HANGAR115
      • -
      First Month Free!
Disclosures (show)

Want to receive Regular Market Updates to your Inbox?

I am your default error :)
FSInsight logo
150 East 52nd St, 3rd Floor, New York, NY 10022

Subscribe to our Free Weekly Report

An insitutional-grade report delivered to your inbox every week.

© 2021 FSInsight. All rights reserved. Developed by HANGAR115.

Illustrations by Karl Wimer.