Threat mitigation, that’s what we’re talking here. It’s a sober-sounding and fancy cyber security term but it describes nicely what’s happening in the stock market lately.
Concerns that have dogged investor sentiment much of 2019 and even late 2018, too, have quite suddenly started to melt away. Risk-on is back.

How’s that? I see an upturn in investor economic expectations further solidifying my view that 2019 is an analog to 2009. There’s been a notable change in the character of markets (in the past few weeks) caused by a general improvement in the macro backdrop for risk assets.

Exhibits 1, 2 and 3: Not only have risks around Brexit and China-US trade spat been mitigated, but more importantly incoming economic data, such as purchasing manager indexes (PMIs), have pointed to a bottoming of industrial cycle. Combine that with potential growth catalysts and the result is marked improvement in growth expectations by investors. Our readers were alerted to this possibility in our previous reports.

● I think the 2020 economy will be better than 2019’s. The key takeaway, in my view, is that prospects for a stronger economy next year have increased. This is a contrast to the consensus view (for most of 2019) that a recession was likely to develop in 2020. In fa...
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