Upticks – Newton’s Law

Upticks Additions

• Reddit, Inc. (RDDT 6.28%  – $271.65)
• Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD 7.42%  – $120.83)
• Shopify (SHOP 4.99%  – $152.11)
• Ishares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA 8.45%  – $34.73)

Upticks Deletions

• General Electric Co. (GE 2.11%  – $268.45)
• Kroger Co. (KR -2.66%  – $65.99)
• Progressive Corp. (PGR -0.81%  – $247.09)

UPTICKS Total Return vs. SPY, Year to Date

UPTICKS Return vs. S&P 500, Since Inception

Upticks One Month Contribution to Performance Relative to SPY (August 18 to September 18)

Upticks Commentary

Below is a technical write-up of seven stocks for this month’s UPTICKS publication, with four additions and three deletions.

(All prices reflect closing prices as of Thursday, 9/18/25.)

Additions Commentary

Reddit (RDDT 6.28%  – $271.65) Recent breakout to new all-time highs should allow for quick upside follow-through into mid-October

Support- $249, $236, Resistance- $345, $390

• RDDT 6.28%  looks quite attractive following its recent breakout back to new all-time highs. The stock is pushing higher this week out of its consolidation following four straight days of consolidation which directly followed the breakout back to new all-time highs earlier this month.
• While momentum indicators like RSI have grown overbought, the technical structure remains quite bullish and this is one of the higher-ranked stocks within Tom Lee’s Small and Mid-Cap (SMID) universe.
• DeMark indicators remain premature on weekly charts by roughly 4-6 weeks potentially to show any upside exhaustion, and I expect that a sharp push higher is likely into mid-October up to $345 before this shows much evidence of stalling out.
• My initial upside target lies at $345, which equates to roughly a 138.2% Fibonacci alternative projection from the initial April 2024-February 2025 rally when measured from April 2025.
• Pullbacks, if/when they occur during the seasonally weak cyclical period from October into November, should provide strong support to buy dips near $249 on any weakness. At present, it’s thought that this week’s strength should pave the way for upside acceleration over the next month.

Robinhood Markets – (HOOD 7.42%  – $120.83)  Ongoing strength expected into mid-October following surge to new highs this past Summer

Support- $96, $88;  Resistance- $146, $162

• HOOD 7.42%  ’s high-volume breakout above former all-time highs from 2021 this past Summer paved the way for sharp gains in recent months, and additional gains still look likely given its strong momentum and bullish technical structure.
• The stock showed just minor consolidation from July into early September this year following the initial breakout to new highs.  However, this consolidation has helped alleviate some of the overbought conditions which were present this past Summer.
• Similar to RDDT 6.28% , HOOD 7.42%  is highly ranked amidst Tom Lee’s SMID portfolio and it’s right to add more Smaller capitalization names to UPTICKS given the start of the FOMC’s rate cutting cycle again.
• I anticipate a possible move up to $146, which represents a 200% alternative retracement to the initial rally off multi-year lows which bottomed in 2023 and spiked higher into February of this year.  (When measuring the alternative move from the April lows, this helps to project $146 as being a possibility.)
• While the failure to move up sharply into October might result in momentum stalling out a bit more after its recent consolidation, I expect a big rally into October before some minor consolidation.

Shopify (SHOP 4.99%  – $152.11) Rally to test and break out above 2025 highs looks likely

Support- $133, $124,  Resistance- $157, $176

• SHOP 4.99%  looks quite bullish following this Summer’s rally to push above February 2025 peaks near $129. 
• Most of mid-to-late August trading resulted in consolidation for SHOP 4.99% , but the minor weakness failed to do any technical damage. 
• While the stock is more than double its April 2025 lows, momentum is not yet as overbought as was the case back in November 2024.
• This week’s strong rally should allow for a coming test and breakout above August 2025 peaks at $156.85 which should allow for a coming test of November 2021 peaks at $176.29.
• My newfound enthusiasm for this stock is based on the degree of recent acceleration in momentum which began in early August.  The lack of any real technical damage on pullbacks attempts likely will result in a coming push back to test and possibly exceed all-time highs.  At present, SHOP 4.99%  looks quite bullish technically.

Ishares Ethereum Trust (ETHA 8.45% - $34.73)   – Recent consolidation bodes well for a coming upside breakout.

Support- $33, $31; Resistance- $35, $42

• Ethereum remains attractive, and should break out of its recent range, pushing back to new all-time highs in the weeks ahead.   While the short-term pattern has proven choppy and range-bound since mid-August, the act of consolidating its four-year base breakout and holding up resiliently is thought to be quite positive.
• As has been mentioned in Flash Insights specifically to Crypto subscribers, Ethereum managed to break out of relative charts vs. Bitcoin and appears far stronger technically speaking.  Technically speaking, I expect a rally up to $5500 and then following a pullback into November, a rally back up to near $9k is possible.
• With regards to ETHA 8.45% , the immediate directional bias can’t yet be called bullish until price gets back up over $35 on a weekly close.  This should jump-start a rally back up to near $42 into mid-October and likely coincides with ETHUSD rising to near $5500.  Time-wise, i anticipate a bottom over the next 3-5 trading days, making ETHA 8.45%  quite appealing on any dip which happens into/after this week’s FOMC decision.

Deletions Commentary

GE Aerospace (GE 2.11% - $268.45) – GE 2.11%  ’s rise has begun to show negative monthly divergence in extreme overbought territory 

• GE 2.11%  ’s rally has reached levels that represent an unattractive technical risk/reward for the months ahead.
• Despite this week representing the first month since 2000 which has resulted in GE 2.11%  pushing back above prior all-time highs, momentum has reached unsustainable levels in my view.
• Monthly RSI now lies in the low 80’s and has diverged from prior RSI peaks seen in May 2024 when the stock was about 75% lower than current levels.
• DeMark counter-trend exhaustion could possibly align on both weekly and monthly charts as of next week.  Thus, while GE 2.11%  has shown little to no evidence of technical weakness to weaken this recent parabolic trend, its risk/reward looks poor over the next six months in my view.
• I’ll revisit this stock upon evidence of a serious pullback potentially in early 2026.

Kroger – (KR -2.66% - $65.99) – Break of one-year uptrend likely results in further near-term underperformance

• KR -2.66%  ’s break of the uptrend since Summer 2024 has made this stock unattractive technically, and right to remove from UPTICKS at this time.
• US Equity markets recent resilience have resulted in Consumer Staples showing poor relative strength vs. other sectors over the last month, and KR -2.66%  has trended down in recent months.
• While I do suspect that KR -2.66%  might hold June 2025 lows just over $64 on further weakness, I’m skeptical that the stock will begin to show technical strength anytime soon.
• It was thought that heading into the Fall season, it might be right to add a few Consumer Staples names to UPTICKS.  However, while WMT has acted just fine, stocks like KR -2.66%  have trended lower.  I’ll revisit KR -2.66%  if the stock starts to exhibit some of the relative strength traits which it did over the last year.

Progressive Corp (PGR -0.81% - $247.09) -Break of intermediate-term uptrend argues for underperformance in the weeks/months ahead.

• Similar to KR -2.66% ,  Progressive Corp. (PGR -0.81% ) has turned down sharply to break its long-term uptrend line.  This makes PGR -0.81%  unappealing at this time, and I am removing this stock.
• Technically I suspect that a test of January lows near $228 might be likely sometime in the months.
• To have faith in this stock starting to turn higher, PGR -0.81%  will require a move back up over $265 in the weeks/months to come.  Until that time, PGR -0.81%  is unattractive to continue holding in UPTICKS, and I am removing the stock at this time.