Near-term Equity index trends remain bullish as the two-day minor pullback has done little to damage the trend from 3/13/25 lows. My expectation is a rally into month/quarter-end, which could lift SPX up to 5830 initially. Despite some investors expressing skepticism about this rally being just a “Dead-Cat Bounce,” there are ample technical signs that this move should be underway despite the recent sluggishness. Both Treasury yields and the US Dollar have slowed their rate of descent, but intermediate-term trends in both remain bearish. Following some whip-saw-like trading into next Wednesday (4/2), I expect Equities to start to turn higher more quickly.
Overall, I see recent weakness in both SPX and QQQ as having created an opportunity, as no damage was done to the minor uptrend since the 3/13/25 lows. The entire gap from last Friday into this past Monday has been filled, given Wednesday’s and Thursday’s consolidation. However, while many remain skeptical ahead of 4/2, it looks right to stay bullish with the likely Pension rebalance into end of month and quarter which might total $40 billion or more.
As shown below, the area at 5693 looks quite attractive as the gap from 3/21-3/25 was filled, and prices managed to rebound slightly after the initial pullback. Only a move under 5600 would change this thinking of a coming bounce to 5830, so that’s the short-term area of risk for those who have short-term timeframes.
Following a push-up into early next week, some additional backing and filling might occur in mid-April before the larger rally gets underway. At present, the current “2-Steps forward, one-step backward” trajectory hasn’t proven damaging to this recovery effort, and despite the tariff-driven negativity, SPX remains roughly 200 points higher than where it bottomed two weeks ago.
S&P 500 Index
Silver’s rally looks to be gaining speed with a pushback to new 2025 highs
With one trading day left in the week and two left in the month and quarter, the Generic Silver futures contract is set to potentially make the highest close since 2012.
Over the last two decades, Silver has largely lagged Gold, outside of some short-lived strength in 2016 and 2020. However, this pushback to new highs for 2025 looks bullish for the idea of Silver starting to accelerate on an absolute basis and potentially on a relative basis as well.
Bottom line, the monthly chart for Silver futures, as shown below, should be positioned for a coming move back to the high $30’s initially.
Given that Silver remains trending down vs. Gold from last June as part of a longer-term downtrend from 2021, as well as 2011, it looks prudent to own Gold as well. Initially, it’s important to show the monthly chart of Silver below.
SI Future
Silver set to close at new three-month highs vs. Gold
As can be seen below, the ratio of SLV -0.92% to GLD 0.78% (as a way of illustrating the relationship of the Silver ETF by Ishares vs. the SPDR Gold Trust) remains in a steep downtrend.
However, this might be changing for a few reasons:
- SLV vs. GLD looks set to finish at a new three-month high with two trading days to go in the month of March.
- SLV vs. GLD in ratio form now shows a monthly TD Sequential (13 Countdown (Buy)) exhaustion pattern for the first time since the most recent 2021 intermediate-term peak. (The prior “13” signal happened in 2020 and allowed for nearly a year of Silver outperformance over Gold.)
- China has begun to reawaken, initially with its Equity market having shown strong gains in recent months, and hopes for possible stimulus which might help their economy (China remains the largest importer of Silver Ore, having imported $4.2 billion in 2023.)
Overall, I like owning both Silver and Gold at current levels, along with Silver and Gold Miners. (SILJ and GDX). I expect that these can all work well in the weeks and months to come as the precious metals rally continues into this Summer.
Note, if this DeMark signal can be confirmed in the months ahead, and the current downtrends of the relationship of SLV to GLD can be surpassed, this would create a much more favorable situation for SLV to outperform GLD in the months ahead.
At present, the move to multi-month highs looks promising, with March nearly coming to a close. Technically, it makes sense to own both Silver and Gold, given Silver’s pushback to new highs for 2025 on Thursday (3/27/25).
Source: Symbolik
