Cycles show NVDA down in December while Natural Gas “Up” Array ( [cookie] => 431242-dd2669-e09d25-0f787f-98f654 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 1 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => fsi_macro [visitor_id] => 572386 [reason] => [method] => ) 1
Equity trends from August remain bullish but yet remain lower than recent peaks from mid-November on 11/11/24. Tuesday’s stabilization is suggestive of a bounce in US Equities between now and next week’s Thanksgiving holiday. Treasuries also seem to be turning higher, and it’s thought that both Treasury Yields and the US Dollar might retreat into December following the unraveling of the so-called “Trump trade”. Whether or not NVDA’s Earnings call results in the stock moving higher or not on Thursday is unclear, yet initial results seemed unimpressive given the lack of a meaningful upside surprise from expectations. If/when Technology cannot mount any larger rally into next week, then markets might show further consolidation into early to mid-December, which would line up with cycle projections and recent lackluster breadth. At present, without knowing the effect of NVDA’s earnings on its share price for Thursday, a rally seems to be underway into early next week.
NVDA’s earnings and revenues seemed to show a marginal “beat” on Wednesday, yet guidance seemed to be largely in line with lofty expectations, which resulted in a minor drop in the stock in the after-market. (The earnings call awaits, which is thought to be more important.) (For those wishing a lengthier analysis of NVDA’s technical, kindly review my technical report from last night, 11/19/24.) Overall, the degree of lagging behavior lately in Technology is certainly a concern and will continue to be on front burner as a gauge for Equity index gauges at a time when Equities are showing a bit more volatility than investors expect this time of year.
However, with regards to $SPX, it does look to trend up into early next week and likely fill the gap from last Thursday which could carry SPX initially to 5942, or above to near 5954, or 5982.
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