Can NVDA help bail out Technology? Array ( [cookie] => 7584e7-ae0e4f-6a2286-e059cf-305f08 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 1 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => fsi_macro [visitor_id] => 591083 [reason] => [method] => ) 1
Equity trends from August remain bullish but yet remain lower than recent peaks from mid-November on 11/11/24. Tuesday’s stabilization is suggestive of a bounce in US Equities between now and next week’s Thanksgiving holiday. Treasuries also seem to be turning higher, and it’s thought that both Treasury Yields and the US Dollar might retreat into December following the unraveling of the so-called “Trump trade”. All eyes are on NVDA’s earnings Wednesday as a possible catalyst for Technology, and it seems important that NVDA, along with former leaders like AAPL, help Technology begin to strengthen after several choppy months. Importantly, given the shape of the decline from 11/11 peaks, there stands an above-average chance that gains into next week might still give way to weakness into the first week of December before any meaningful low is at hand.
Overall, I’m encouraged by Tuesday’s brief dip to new weekly lows before the strong recovery, which was seen by DJIA, S&P Futures, and NASDAQ Composite. This suggests that a short-term low is likely in place.
Elliott-wave theory combined with technical support based on the structural pattern of the most recent rally both argue for a likely bounce. However, this remains a choppy period for Equities given the breadth deterioration of late, and one cannot yet say with confidence, given Tuesday’s early pullback, that a move to new highs is imminent.
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