Crude bounce likely to prove short-lived into next week

Short-term US Equity trends have still grinded largely sideways in recent weeks following the bullish breakout back to new all-time highs for SPX and DJIA.   Despite minor weakness following the escalation in the Middle East in recent days, Equities have failed to show much real deterioration, and breadth remains near the highs of the year.  While the back half of October might prove more volatile than the first half, recent sideways consolidation does not seem indicative of that which might kick off any type of real selloff, despite all the negative headlines globally.  Overall, without evidence of any serious technical damage, it’s difficult turning too negative on US equity markets.  I expect that the Rosh Hashanah/Yom Kipper cycle very well might invert this year, leading to strength into Yom Kippur, not vice versa.

Overall, after just three days of selling pressure in the last five, S&P remains within 1% of all-time highs made just four trading days ago.  Breadth has proven solid in recent weeks, and momentum and technical structure continue to be in good shape.  Technology has “taken the back seat” in recent weeks to strength seen out of Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary.

Yet, Technology has not materially weakened enough to suggest that any sort of peak is happening within the sector.  Incidentally, stocks like AAPL show beautiful bullish triangle patterns, while the Software ETF ($IGV) is on the verge of its own breakout back to new all-time highs.  (Stocks like $CRM and $ORCL are particularly positive here technically).

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