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Upticks – Newton’s Law
(New Additions in Bold)
Upticks Additions
- Vistra – VST -0.43%
- Cameco- CCJ 1.47%
Upticks Deletions
- American Express (AXP) – Very Stretched combined with DeMark exhaustion
UPTICKS Total Return vs. SPY, since inception
Upticks Year-to-Date Contribution to Performance
Upticks Commentary
Alphabet (GOOGL – $173.55)
Excellent technical structure given early year push back to new all-time highs
Support- $165, Resistance- $192, $218
-Outside of NVDA, GOOGL is the most attractive of any of the Magnificent 7 names following its breakout to new all-time highs last month
-Lack of counter-trend exhaustion on weekly/monthly basis along with a steady uptrend following its breakout keeps this attractive.
-Monthly DeMark TD Sell Setups might materialize in three months. However, I don’t expect any significant peak in GOOGL to be in place until August/September of this year
Resistance should materialize near $192, then $218, and strong support is found at 165
Netflix (NFLX – $635.67)
Bullish, but a breakout above 638 necessary to drive this back to all-time highs
Support – $596, Resistance – $638, $701
-Intermediate-term bullish, but short-term resistance remains at $638 and has proven elusive to surpass in the short run.
-No damage to broader trend, and churning since March looks temporary.
-This past week’s gains look to likely have resolved the consolidation and if 638 is exceeded, this should drive a move up to 701. Near-term support lies at 596
Amazon (AMZN – $181.05)
Stallout near all-time highs likely proves temporary
Support – $178, Resistance – $191, 220
-AMZN remains in near-term consolidation mode following its successful retest of former all-time highs
-Uptrend from last October’s lows remains very much intact; therefore, this minor stalling out is seen as the “pause that refreshes”. Move above $191.70 is likely in June which should help AMZN rise to $215-220
-Short-term support lies near 180 but unlikely to show too much weakness before push back to new highs
Tesla (TSLA – $173.74)
Bottom looks to be at hand; Push higher to 235 looks possible
Support – $139, Resistance – $200, 235
-TSLA’s recent 35% gains in six trading days helped to break above the 2024 downtrend
-Momentum indicators like MACD have begun to turn higher, and support a rally back up to 235
-While intermediate-term downtrend remains intact, a sharp tactical rally looks possible
Berkshire Hathaway Cl. B (BRK.B – $405.88)
Minor consolidation should be resolved by upward thrust
Support – $395, Resistance – $430, 460
-Rally into March peaks showed just minor consolidation, which now looks complete
-Gains back to new all-time highs look likely into mid-to-late June
-BRK.B has a big weight within Financials, and looks like one of the best technical picks within the entire Financial sector
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG – $398.39)
Post breakout consolidation looks complete
Support – $360, Resistance – $432, 460
-ISRG’s recent consolidation failed to do any real technical damage, and this stock maintains one of the more attractive long-term bullish bases within the Healthcare space
-Long-term base remains very bullish, and this week is pushing back to new all-time highs over $405 which should lead to 432 in the weeks/months ahead
-Only a move back under $360 would serve to cause deterioration to the current trend.
Eli Lilly (LLY – $808.45)
Breakout of three-month consolidation should lead to the next wave higher
Support – $786, Resistance – $865, $954
-LLY’s recent consolidation looks to be getting resolved by an upside breakout this week
-The ongoing stair-stepping pattern that led to three months of range-bound trading should now lead to a sharp rally into one of the most bullish times of the year for Healthcare
-Little to no evidence of technical weakness happened during the drawdown into mid-April
-LLY’s recent consolidation has helped to alleviate overbought conditions
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX – $450.80)
VRTX finally breaking back out to new highs following multi-month consolidation within uptrend
Support – $440, Resistance – $475, 498
-VRTX pullback into mid-April managed to hold an area of long-term trendline support
-Recent strength this week has pushed back over former all-time highs at $448, making VRTX one of the more attractive stocks within the liquid, large-cap names within the Healthcare space
-Only a break under $390 would serve to break VRTX’s longer-term trend. Until/unless that happens, it’s right to expect this recent leg higher that’s led to the breakout should lead to $500.
Axon Enterprises (AXON – $279.99)
Recent consolidation makes AXON attractive above uptrend line support
Support – $277, Resistance – $290, 329
-Consolidation over the last few months has helped to lessen AXON’s overbought state
-No trend damage has occurred on the recent short-term weakness. However, AXON looks like a much better risk/reward to buy recent weakness.
Copart (CPRT – $53.52)
Recent pullback has made CPRT an excellent risk/reward
Support – $52, Resistance – $58, 65
-Recent decline has made CPRT much more attractive given less overbought momentum
-No evidence of any long-term trendline break occurred on recent weakness
-Excellent risk/reward to buy dips within this ongoing uptrend, expecting a push up to $58, then $65
Transdigm (TDG – $1,330.72)
Uptrend remains tight, symmetrical and very steep
Support – $1165, Resistance – $1400, 1600
-TDG has particular appeal given little to no evidence of any trendline deterioration
-Parabolic uptrend looks to show further gains given ongoing parabolic thrust with little trend damage
-Move to $1400 looks possible, while a move back under $1300 would be necessary to cause trend damage
Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET – $301.42)
Strong monthly range should still help ANET move higher
Support – $289, Resistance – $329, 340
-Parabolic trend has continued to steepen, and should allow for gains up to $380
-May’s monthly gains are dwarfing prior months, and keeps the bullish outlook intact
Microstrategy (MSTR – $1,544.07)
Uptrend should get back to all-time highsas Bitcoin escalates back to new highs
Support – $1490, Resistance – $1740, 1900
-MSTR’s gains have now recouped about 70% of the prior drawdown
-While selloff into April proved severe, Cryptocurrencies did not show meaningful technical deterioration and are now turning back up. Bitcoin pushing back to new highs would be thought to be helpful towards MSTR retesting and even exceeding recent highs.
Oracle (ORCL – $124.09)
Bullish base creation underway which is a positive development
Support – $120, Resistance – $132, 150
-ORCL’s lack of progress over the last year does not look problematic given the long-term bullish nature of its weekly pattern.
-Move back to new high territory looks likely into this Fall, with targets found near $132, $150
Freeport McMoran (FCX – $51.20)
Copper’s surge results in FCX pushing back above 2022 highs
Support – $49, Resistance – $55, 61
Copper’s rise on China bottoming looks to continue, and should benefit FCX.
FCX looks to be just exceeding former highs, which can allow for a push to $60
Western Digital (WDC – $74.16)
Breakout should continue to extend as WDC plays “Catch-up”
Support – $72, Resistance – $78, $82
Cameco (CCJ – $52.14)
Breakout in Uranium bodes well for CCJ to begin trending higher following lengthy consolidation
Support – $50, Resistance – $62, $69
-Breakout of CCJ’s lengthy base since early 2024 is positive for a push back to the $60’s.
-Minor consolidation post recent breakout makes CCJ look quite attractive as Commodity trade and specifically, Uranium, should begin to trend higher into Fall 2024
-Minor consolidation following its recent breakout makes this attractive for a push back to 62, then 69.
Vistra (VST – $96.13)
Parabolic trend still has another 3-5 months before exhaustion
Support – $90, Resistance – $112, 125
-VST parabolic trend showing no evidence of exhaustion. Additional 3-5 months of rally look possible
-Pullbacks should be held near 90 while further upside acceleration could reach $112, then $125
Upticks Performance, shown Year-to-Date (YTD)
*Prices are as of 5/23 close.
