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The video in this report is only accessible to members

I continue to see the US stock market as being attractive, technically speaking, and do not feel sufficient risk is there to warrant a selloff at this time. While price action has been a bit more subdued in recent weeks following momentum gauges having gotten overbought, there remain precious little other evidence with regards to frothy speculation to excessive valuation measures that would warrant a major selloff.  Rallies up to SPX-5350-5400 look likely into mid-April before a consolidation gets underway. Both Treasury yields and US Dollar should be starting to roll over.

SPX has now logged five straight monthly gains, with 2024’s 1st quarter performance having exceeded 10%.  As discussed yesterday, this represents the 11th best 1st Quarter since 1950. 

Looking back since 1950, the top 24 instances of the best 1st quarter returns have never led to a down year.  Only in the year 1987 of the top 15 1st quarterly returns did the year prove negative from April into year-end.  However, as we remember, the year as a whole still turned in positive gains.

The median return after a positive string of four straight winter months of November-February has been 15% from March into year-end. ...

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