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Technically the broad-based participation higher in multiple sectors in the last month is certainly a positive heading into 2024.   While near-term risk/reward doesn’t seem favorable for those with timeframes less than two to three months, the recent overbought readings have not signaled any evidence of giving way.  I’ll be watching for evidence of any hint of trend reversal in the days ahead.  If this fails to materialize until January, than a larger than normal correction likely would occur into February of 2024.

US Equities and Treasuries have largely extended further than what was believed possible a few weeks ago and DJIA has now reached new all-time highs while NASDAQ 100 index and QQQ, not to mention SPX are right below all-time high peaks.  Equal-weighted SPX has also now exceeded July 2023 highs to reach the highest levels since April 2022.    

Bottom line, the trends have proven resilient in both Equities and Treasuries and there hasn’t been sufficient evidence of trends giving way to expect a short-term reversal.  Seasonality studies along with short-term cycles which had hinted of early month consolidation have not worked as planned.  Small-caps, E...

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