Defensives continuing to gain traction over last few months

The chart in this report is only accessible to members
The chart in this report is only accessible to members

Despite the rally over the last four of five weeks for SPX, it sure hasn’t felt like it lately !!   SPX has largely ground sideways, with Monday’s 4137.03 close being less than 13 points away from 4124.50 from 4/3/23, the first trading day of April.  That’s 0.003% higher, or largely unchanged.

As discussed, the deterioration in Large-cap Technology has been responsible for much of this stalling out, while the rebound in Healthcare, Financials, and Materials, not to mention Consumer Discretionary have had a much lesser positive effect on US Equity indices.

Breadth has surely contracted, as per the waning Advance/Decline line in the last week and fewer stocks above their 20-day moving average. Yet stock indices have not weakened enough to think any sort of pullback into May is upon us.

Unless 4113 is broken on a closing basis, which would likely take SPX down to 4069 and then 4040, (and even then, it would be difficult to call a top) trends are bullish and there still stands an excellent chance of a rally into early May.

Bottom line, those concerned with short-term performance should eyeball 4140 on the upside and 4113 on the downside.  If either one of these levels is broken, then SPX will follow-through accordingly.  Until ...
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