False Breakout in SPX keeps strong resistance at 4100 Array ( [cookie] => 88f86a-bc2148-6126f9-f188f7-b09cf2 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 1 [max_usage_crypto] => 1 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 1 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => fsi_macro [visitor_id] => 556868 [reason] => [method] => ) 1
The near-term downtrend remains intact for US benchmark indices after early strength was repelled yet again at the key 4100 level. Given that both 10 and 30-year Yields have shown evidence of starting to turn higher (and US Dollar rally looks imminent) it makes pressing long bets here still difficult given a plethora of upside resistance. Overall, SPX and QQQ look to be at important levels where a stalling out and trend reversal is very possible given the lack of Technology follow-through and ongoing Defensive trading. Bottom line, exceeding 4100 on a weekly close is the first step for Bulls, but getting over 4225 would add substantial credibility as to the viability of our October 2022 bottom being a more important low. Failing here post FOMC in stock prices as yields turn higher would suggest a possible “backing and filling” into late next week. It remains important to keep a close eye on DXY, TNX, and Technology
2-Year Breakdown likely could lead to 4.00% while TNX starts to stabilize and rally
One direct consequence of Tuesday’s weaker than expected inflation figures concerned the drop in US 2-Year Yields.
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