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Happy Halloween to All!

The minor selloff during Monday’s session didn’t serve to detract too much from what’s been a stellar month for $SPX.  As seen below, $SPX has been trending up nicely, higher by over 10% from 10/13 intra-day lows and higher by nearly 8% for the month of October.  Thus, the combination of negative sentiment, bullish mid-term seasonality and some positive cycles gave plenty of warnings that October might live up to its billing as a “Bear-Killer” month.  Yet, the question remains, will the Fed spook investors on Wednesday, or deliver a warm “trick or treat” dovish surprise that could help this rally to extend further?  While I’ve expected a pullback into this volatile time into early November, I’m skeptical that $SPX gets under 3820 just yet.  Charts of TNX are starting to give indication that further downside is possible with yields in the weeks ahead.  This should be a positive for Equities given recent correlation trends, and should mean that SPX holds 3820-50 into late Tuesday/early Wednesday ahead of FOMC and turns back higher.  Until/unless this red uptrend line is broken, it will make sense to buy dips, and I feel that any larger selloff might be postponed if...

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