Reviewing the Positives and Negatives after Thursday's reversal

Note: We sincerely apologize. Due to a technical error, Mark's note was not sent out last night. This is Mark's note meant for the trading day: 10/13/2022. Thank you for your understanding.

The sudden about-face caught most off-guard Thursday, but SPX fell to an exact 61.8% alternate Fibonacci retracement of the 9/14-10/3 decline at 3485, and this was nearly an exact direct hit of the 50% retracement of the entire 2020-2022 rally.  I felt Thursday’s reversal was important given the ongoing positive momentum divergences, and the surge happened on above-average volume and nearly 4/1 volume into Advancing vs Declining issues.  While breadth proved not to be as strong as desired, one could trace out an intraday five-wave advance from Thursday’s lows which gives some confidence that markets might be able to build upon this over the next week.  While it’s always difficult to immediately extend following an intra-day 200-point low-to-high rally, a long bias still seems correct, and pullbacks should be buyable for further strength up to near 3800.  Markets remain in a volatile time in October which will extend into end of month and into early November, so it’s difficult having too much conviction of sharp rallies extending within a sharply down-trending tape, but I’ll discuss within this report some of the key positives and negatives as I see them in the pages to come.  Overall, I am encouraged that this week’s rally was nearly right on schedule and maintain a short-term positive bias.  I’ll monitor closely the risks to a further upswing, or rewards if and when upside targets are exceeded early.

Key Positives to consider

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