The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

The failure of $SPX to turn up immediately is a bit disconcerting given my short-term Cycle projection into mid-September, and it’s looking increasingly likely that this cycle will now invert and produce a low in stocks into 9/14, not a high.  My 3920-5 area of importance was breached on a close Tuesday, yet still no major weakness thus far, despite the downtrend being stubbornly persistent.  Sentiment, breadth gauges and Elliott wave structure are all suggestive of an upcoming low, while current technical trends along with cycles remain biased towards more volatility.  Overall, maybe the most important piece of the puzzle lies with Treasury yields pushing higher, and this remains important to keep an eye on given the negative correlation with stocks.  As I’ll discuss later in this report, yields look closer to peaking out in the near-term with $TYX and UK Gilt 10-year yields at the highest levels in eight years.  Hourly charts below show the current breakdown of this $SPX decline, with this push to new lows likely being closer to a low, not something to chase.  Overall, I will hold longs into 9/15 and buy dips into next week.

The video in this report is only accessible to members

Breakout in long-term yields not likely to extend


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