Bonds Showing Signs of a Cycle Top: Time to Trim

After a 60% rally from its 2018 lows, I think a cycle peak is in for the TLT Bond ETF. This ETF, which is one of the most widely owned bond proxies, is showing technical evidence of establishing a cycle top. And as usual, history provides us some valuable insight.

Take a look at long-term momentum oscillator in the top panel of the chart below. This is a useful technical tool that signals longer-term trend shifts in markets. Similar to peaks in Q4 2016, Q1 2015, Q3 2012 and Q2 2009, it is in...

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