So far, markets look to be tracking reasonably well the roadmap I’ve highlighted in the past: the previous weeks’ action is part of the temporary zig-zag I expect to continue into early Q3. Weekly technical indicators, which track 1-2 quarter shifts, should return to neutral to oversold territory, setting the stage for another multi-month upside move in equities later this year. Overall, the bigger picture pattern looks very similar to what developed in Q2-Q3 2016 and is the reason I remain optimistic for 2H19.

Small-caps action, however, has been notably sluggish and uninspiring, causing some clients to pushback on my outlook. However, I’ve seen markets transition from worry back to optimism over many cycles and it always feels and looks very uncertain in the late stages of a multi-week correction, about where we are today. Always.

So, let’s take a closer look at the Russell 2000 chart below of weekly data to identify technical levels that will help signal an improving technical backdrop.

1) Momentum - The top panel, a weekly momentum indicator, was overbought and peaking in late Q1, one reason I cautioned Q2 was likely to be more volatile. While still negative, I’m expecting this indicator to bottom and turn up by early to mid Q3. The Russell needs to rally ...

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