Caution Advised Amid Downside Risk

With the first two months of 2023 now in the books, the year has started like a classic Rocky movie that has massive reversals.  The evil dovish/bullish bad guy, Clubber Lang or Ivan Drago, comes out for the opening bell during round one in January and totally pummels hawkish/bearish Rocky.  Our hero Rocky barely looks like he will survive and make it through the round.  Well, in true fashion, the Italian Stallion not only valiantly makes it to his corner for a recharge, but he comes out swinging and dominates round two during February.  The crowd is sitting on the edge of their seats and do not have a high degree of confidence about what the final outcome will be. 

Who is going to win?

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When bringing this back to the equity markets, all of my client interactions have focused on what is the true underlying trend — 1) the battle with inflation has been won, the Fed is lower for shorter, and the beginnings of a new bull market have already occurred in October/January; or 2) inflation is coming down but it’s going to be a long hard fought battle, the Fed is higher for longer, and we are still in midst of an ongoing bear market as experienced in February.  There continues to be a lot of heated debate both interna...
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