FLASH COMMENTS:

As a forecaster who has been concerned about an equity market that had unfinished business on the downside, July’s rally that began at the S&P 500’s June low has left me feeling a bit like Rocky Balboa at the end of the original Rocky movie during the famous fight with Apollo Creed.  I am certainly bloodied and beaten up.  Importantly, however, instead of throwing in the towel, I am going to lean over to my trainer played by Burgess Meredith and say the epic line — “Cut me, Mick.”

Why am I willing to stay on the same bearish path when apparently, it’s now wrong to be concerned, and equity indexes are now headed to new all-time highs, especially when I made this nearly same call in March/April of 2020 at the COVID lows?

Let’s compare the two periods. 

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Maybe it is me being overly concerned or I might have bearish confirmation bias, but these two periods do not look anywhere near being the same.  With that being said, my tactical work has flipped to favorable and suggests that there could be additional upside left before this bounce exhausts itself. 

My medium/longer term work is still unfavorable on the overall equity market and having an objective indicator-driven process that has had a successful long-...

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