Members Area

Macro Research

Latest Updates

Latest

Daily Technical Strategy

Wed, October 8, 2025 | 2:48PM ET

US Dollar index has risen to two-month highs

Latest

First to Market

Wed, October 8, 2025 | 8:33AM ET

Less House, Less Spending?

Latest

First Word

Wed, October 8, 2025 | 7:50AM ET

Polymarket shows 96% probability shutdown to last beyond 9 more days = dovish Fed

Daily Technical Strategy

Tue, October 7, 2025 | 6:36PM ET

Consumer Discretionary weakening to new monthly lows

Macro Minute Video

Tue, October 7, 2025 | 6:19PM ET

Video: Macro Minute: Polymarket shows 96% probability shutdown to last beyond 9 more days = dovish Fed

FSI Sector Allocation

Tue, October 7, 2025 | 8:42AM ET

FSI Sector Allocation - October 2025 Update

First Word

Latest

First Word

Wed, October 8, 2025 | 7:50AM ET

Polymarket shows 96% probability shutdown to last beyond 9 more days = dovish Fed

Video_: _NY Fed 1-yr expectations rose in Sept, reflecting anticipated tariff impacts, but the longer-term remained stable at 3%. This is positive. And coupled with...

Thu, October 2, 2025 | 7:50AM ET

- History shows probabilities favor S&P 500 7,000 by YE25 given YTD gains. Gov't shutdown = no jobs report Friday but weak ADP = "dovish" Fed

Fri, September 26, 2025 | 7:50AM ET

- S&P 500 is 10% above its 200-dma and recent "local tops" are 13% to 15%... too early to call a top

Fri, September 19, 2025 | 7:50AM ET

- Fed 25bp cut is start of an easing cycle = positive. OW MAG7, Crypto and small-caps/financials

Macro Minute Video

Tue, October 7, 2025 | 6:19PM ET

Video: Macro Minute: Polymarket shows 96% probability shutdown to last beyond 9 more days = dovish Fed

Video_: _NY Fed 1-yr expectations rose in Sept, reflecting anticipated tariff impacts, but the longer-term remained stable at 3%. This is positive. And coupled with...

Mon, October 6, 2025 | 9:33PM ET

- Video: Macro Minute: Oct off to a good start gaining +0.77% so far and S&P 500 YE target of 7,000 seems low. $AMD affirms AI trade intact

Tue, September 30, 2025 | 1:32AM ET

- Video: Macro Minute: Heavy data week including jobs, ISM and now a govt shutdown. AI guru Julian warns of exponential "gain of function" for AI

Thu, September 25, 2025 | 8:52PM ET

- Video: Macro Minute: S&P 500 is 10% above its 200-dma and recent "local tops" are 13% to 15%… too early to call a top

Outlooks

Wed, December 11, 2024 | 7:50AM ET

2025 OUTLOOK (Lee): Two “puts” make a right - After 20% back-to-back, Mid-year 7,000, Year-end 6,600

PLEASE JOIN US TODAY AT 1PM ET FOR OUR 2025 YEAR AHEAD OUTLOOK. Register HERE. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:29). https://vimeo. com/1038001660/7ba01aaa43?...

Thu, December 7, 2023 | 7:50AM ET

- 2024 Year Ahead: Inflation down plus higher demand = P/E expansion.

Technical Strategy

Latest

Daily Technical Strategy

Wed, October 8, 2025 | 2:48PM ET

US Dollar index has risen to two-month highs

NEAR-TERM AND INTERMEDIATE-TERM TECHNICAL TRENDS REMAIN BULLISH FOR US EQUITIES, BUT A FEW SECTORS HAVE STARTED TO WEAKEN LATELY, MAKING IT RIGHT TO BE MORE...

Tue, October 7, 2025 | 6:36PM ET

- Consumer Discretionary weakening to new monthly lows

Mon, October 6, 2025 | 7:59PM ET

- AMD strength outshines broader market churning

Fri, October 3, 2025 | 6:09PM ET

- Broadening out should lead to short-term boost into mid-October

Technical Outlooks

Tue, January 7, 2025 | 9:17AM ET

2025 Technical Outlook: A more Subdued year but still likely positive

REMINDER: My 2025 Technical Outlook is today (1/7) at 2:00 PM Est. Additionally, please find my Outlook Deck attached HERE. CONCLUSIONS-SPX END OF YEAR TARGET...

Thu, December 14, 2023 | 10:24AM ET

- 2024 Technical Outlook: Broad-based rally back to new all-time highs likely in 2024

Mon, July 3, 2023 | 4:00PM ET

- 2H2023 Technical Outlook

Tue, January 24, 2023 | 5:55PM ET

- 2023 Technical Outlook: Bear Market Lows Likely in Place

Your Weekly Roadmap

Fri, October 3, 2025 | 5:30PM ET

Stocks’ Meteoric Rally Extends Into the Final Quarter of the Year

Good evening, The third quarter ended on Tuesday with the S&P 500 having hit 23 records as it climbed 7.8%. The broad-based index then proceeded...

Fri, September 26, 2025 | 5:27PM ET

- Stocks Take a Breather

Fri, September 19, 2025 | 5:14PM ET

- Fed Cuts Reaffirm Stocks’ Extraordinary Climb To Records

Fri, September 12, 2025 | 5:25PM ET

- Stocks Jump to Records Ahead of Largely Expected Rate Cuts Next Week

First to Market

Latest

First to Market

Wed, October 8, 2025 | 8:33AM ET

Less House, Less Spending?

CHART OF THE DAY GOOD MORNING! Back in the day, MTV's long-running show "Cribs" featured celebrities taking viewers on tours of their ginormous, amenity-laden, resort-like...

Tue, October 7, 2025 | 8:37AM ET

- Private Data Needs Public Data

Mon, October 6, 2025 | 8:30AM ET

- The Stock Market is at Records. Some Consumers Say It’s OK to Treat Yourself.

Fri, October 3, 2025 | 8:52AM ET

- The First Big Private Market Bombs Just Went Off

Signal From Noise

Signal From Noise

Sat, September 27, 2025 | 10:34AM ET

Why I Think Revenue Per Employee Is Going to Become Wall Street’s Hottest Metric

Wall Street loves non-GAAP measures of corporate success, whether it be EBITDA or free cash flow. In the age of artificial intelligence, my take is...

Sat, September 13, 2025 | 10:15AM ET

- Space Stocks, Pt. II: Shooting for the Moon – and Beyond

Sat, August 23, 2025 | 10:30AM ET

- Space Stocks: The Companies Helping Us Reach Escape Velocity

Sat, August 9, 2025 | 10:19AM ET

- Tech 2.0: Power Providers’ Version

US Policy

US Policy

Mon, October 6, 2025 | 9:47AM ET

Shutdown Continues to Dominate Washington

The government shutdown enters week 2 with neither sides talking to the other. The House, after approving the Continuing Resolution (CR) that runs until Nov....

Fri, October 3, 2025 | 12:47PM ET

- Shutdown Dominates Washington

Mon, September 29, 2025 | 9:59AM ET

- Shutdown Midnight Tuesday

Fri, September 26, 2025 | 12:19PM ET

- Shutdown Looms

Fed Watch

Fed Watch

Wed, September 17, 2025 | 7:33PM ET

The Summer I Cut Rates

“When our goals are in tension like this, our framework calls for us to balance both sides of our dual mandate.” - Jay Powell The...

Wed, July 30, 2025 | 7:55PM ET

- The Great Rate Debate

Wed, June 18, 2025 | 8:16PM ET

- Dual Mandate Duel

Thu, May 8, 2025 | 11:00AM ET

- Fed Views Economy as Healthy, Sees No Reason to Rush Rate Cuts

Earnings Daily

Thu, August 28, 2025 | 6:30AM ET

- FS Insight 2Q25 Daily Earnings (EPS) Update – 08/25/2025

Macro Videos

Macro Minute Video

Tue, October 8, 2024 | 8:28PM ET

Video: Macro Minute: HBO documentary (airing tonight) claims to identify Satoshi. Still a "whipsaw" market but we expect investors to buy the dip, with 3Q24 EPS around the corner.

VIDEO: Be sure to tune into the HBO documentary Digital Money tonight at 9pm ET, where HBO claims to reveal the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto,...

Sun, August 18, 2024 | 7:52PM ET

- Video: Macro Minute: Fed Chair remarks at Jackson Hole likely to solidify that 8/5 was summer low.

Sun, August 11, 2024 | 7:43PM ET

- Video: Macro Minute: We are watching 3 things this week. At top of list is Middle East conflict.

Sun, July 28, 2024 | 10:04PM ET

Members Area

Macro Research

Latest Updates

US Dollar index has risen to two-month highs

Less House, Less Spending?

Polymarket shows 96% probability shutdown to last beyond 9 more days = dovish Fed

Consumer Discretionary weakening to new monthly lows

Video: Macro Minute: Polymarket shows 96% probability shutdown to last beyond 9 more days = dovish Fed

FSI Sector Allocation - October 2025 Update

First Word

Polymarket shows 96% probability shutdown to last beyond 9 more days = dovish Fed

- History shows probabilities favor S&P 500 7,000 by YE25 given YTD gains. Gov't shutdown = no jobs report Friday but weak ADP = "dovish" Fed

- S&P 500 is 10% above its 200-dma and recent "local tops" are 13% to 15%... too early to call a top

- Fed 25bp cut is start of an easing cycle = positive. OW MAG7, Crypto and small-caps/financials

Macro Minute Video

Video: Macro Minute: Polymarket shows 96% probability shutdown to last beyond 9 more days = dovish Fed

- Video: Macro Minute: Oct off to a good start gaining +0.77% so far and S&P 500 YE target of 7,000 seems low. $AMD affirms AI trade intact

- Video: Macro Minute: Heavy data week including jobs, ISM and now a govt shutdown. AI guru Julian warns of exponential "gain of function" for AI

- Video: Macro Minute: S&P 500 is 10% above its 200-dma and recent "local tops" are 13% to 15%… too early to call a top

Outlooks

2025 OUTLOOK (Lee): Two “puts” make a right - After 20% back-to-back, Mid-year 7,000, Year-end 6,600

- 2024 Year Ahead: Inflation down plus higher demand = P/E expansion.

Technical Strategy

US Dollar index has risen to two-month highs

- Consumer Discretionary weakening to new monthly lows

- AMD strength outshines broader market churning

- Broadening out should lead to short-term boost into mid-October

Technical Outlooks

2025 Technical Outlook: A more Subdued year but still likely positive

- 2024 Technical Outlook: Broad-based rally back to new all-time highs likely in 2024

- 2H2023 Technical Outlook

- 2023 Technical Outlook: Bear Market Lows Likely in Place

Your Weekly Roadmap

Stocks’ Meteoric Rally Extends Into the Final Quarter of the Year

- Stocks Take a Breather

- Fed Cuts Reaffirm Stocks’ Extraordinary Climb To Records

- Stocks Jump to Records Ahead of Largely Expected Rate Cuts Next Week

First to Market

Less House, Less Spending?

- Private Data Needs Public Data

- The Stock Market is at Records. Some Consumers Say It’s OK to Treat Yourself.

- The First Big Private Market Bombs Just Went Off

Signal From Noise

Why I Think Revenue Per Employee Is Going to Become Wall Street’s Hottest Metric

- Space Stocks, Pt. II: Shooting for the Moon – and Beyond

- Space Stocks: The Companies Helping Us Reach Escape Velocity

- Tech 2.0: Power Providers’ Version

US Policy

Shutdown Continues to Dominate Washington

- Shutdown Dominates Washington

- Shutdown Midnight Tuesday

- Shutdown Looms

Fed Watch

The Summer I Cut Rates

- The Great Rate Debate

- Dual Mandate Duel

- Fed Views Economy as Healthy, Sees No Reason to Rush Rate Cuts

Earnings Daily

FS Insight 2Q25 Daily Earnings (EPS) Update – 08/28/2025

- FS Insight 2Q25 Daily Earnings (EPS) Update – 08/27/2025

- FS Insight 2Q25 Daily Earnings (EPS) Update – 08/26/2025

- FS Insight 2Q25 Daily Earnings (EPS) Update – 08/25/2025

Macro Videos

Video: Macro Minute: HBO documentary (airing tonight) claims to identify Satoshi. Still a "whipsaw" market but we expect investors to buy the dip, with 3Q24 EPS around the corner.

- Video: Macro Minute: Fed Chair remarks at Jackson Hole likely to solidify that 8/5 was summer low.

- Video: Macro Minute: We are watching 3 things this week. At top of list is Middle East conflict.

- Video: Macro Minute: Post-FOMC press conf (2:30pm), equities rallied 5D last 5 of 6 instances. Small-cap remains most compelling.