“I don't think you know how much you can do until you try.” ~ Chita Rivera (1933 - 2024)

Good evening,

This was an important week for markets, with myriad macroeconomic catalysts having their say. “We learned a lot this week,” Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee told us. “Our primary takeaway is that 2024 will be a challenging year, but ultimately positive — just as January had zig-zags, but ended up positive.”

To be specific, the S&P 500 ended up 1.59% for the month of January – an important signal, in Lee’s view. He and his team examined data from the past 74 years, finding 28 instances in which the prior year saw gains of 15% or more, as we just did in 2023. Of those 28 instances, January was a positive month in 13 of them. As our Chart of the Week shows, in these 13 historic analogs, the full-year return was positive 12 out of 13 times (92%), with a median full-year return at 16.3%. Remarked Lee, “This suggests that our 5,200 [year-end] target might be low. Based on this January barometer, the possible upside to our S&P 500 target could be as high as 5,500 or more.”

The video in this report is only accessible to members
Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton had similar thoughts about the year-end target for the S&P 500. In his 2024 outlook, Newton forecast a year-end target of 5,...

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