Good evening:

Many people seem to believe we live in especially exhaustive, volatile times. But the rhythms of our moment – pandemic, protest, pandemic, election, insurrection, pandemic, inflation, invasion of Ukraine, market volatility – are nothing new. As Tom Lee, our head of research, likes to note: There’s nothing new under the sun. This underscores the importance of looking at cycles and recognizing that what has happened could happen again. The adage applies to markets in profound ways, helping us navigate turbulence and uncertainty.

“There’s no excuse for being surprised.”

In the book Of Anger, Seneca draws on Fabius, one of Ancient Rome’s great generals, to teach a lesson from war: “Fabius used to say that the basest excuse for a commanding officer is ‘I didn’t think it would happen,’ but I say it’s the basest for anyone. Thinking everything might happen; anticipate everything.” Anticipate everything is worth keeping at the forefront of your investing approach.

In markets, then, we shouldn’t be surprised by the twists and turns, the inevitable ebb and flow. Raising rates, war, and inflation: Our research heads believe the choppy times will continue. But there is no benefit in panic, even though we just endured the S&P 500’s ...

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