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“The trend is your friend, until the end when it bends.” — Martin Zweig
Chart of the Day
Good morning!
Many are plagued by the eternal question — how long can a trend remain cool before becoming cringey?
We won’t go into details of “Signalgate,” but we will say that the emojis were perhaps the most entertaining bit about the saga.
Of course, many found these emojis to be cringey, especially given the gravity of the situation.
The unlikeability could be a sign of a cultural reset. Since taking off in the 2010s, emojis have become synonymous with young people, who came of age during the digital phone era and used them to create their own special community. To some extent—they even created their own language with it, where even something as straightforward as fruits and vegetables hold very different meanings.
But now that high-ranking officials are using emojis, it might have just become too mainstream. I guess the point is that emojis are for the young and cool, and important people should use grammar?
Of course, the silly, little cartoon-ish pictures are far from the only trend whose reign has been threatened recently because it became too popular.
Another example lies with New York Governor Kathy Hochul. She posted a photo on X of a Saratoga water with a banana and said, “Gearing up for the latest round of budget negotiations.”
Don’t worry, reader, I will break it down. Hochul was making a subtle reference to influencer Ashton Hall’s viral video for which he has been roasted online. (Readers, this video is truly one of the most bizarre things I’ve seen.)
Hall woke up before 4 a.m., dunked his head into a bowl of ice cold water at 5:49 a.m., and then rubbed a banana peel over his face at 8:49 a.m., all while drinking bottles of Saratoga water. In her post, Hochul was referencing that she too is ready for that level of grind, at least I think?
Unfortunately, this did mean that the meme was well on its way to being passé. One X user summed it up perfectly.
And trends’ plunge closer to death isn’t limited to just politicians either. Last summer, Sabrina Carpenter and Zoë Kravitz’s appearance on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon killed the “very mindful, very demure, very cutesy” trend.
And readers, I know what you’re thinking. Why are we discussing this in what’s supposed to be a finance and markets newsletter? Well, that’s because this isn’t just limited to a niche corner of the internet but also extends to investing.
Just think of cult stocks like Tesla that have become unpopular because of its Chief Executive Elon Musk’s personal relationship with President Donald Trump. Even GameStop, before it led a meme-stocks revolution, was revered by retail investors but since the video-game retailer announced plans to raise bitcoin, shares have declined.
And sure, none of this technically matters, but it does when you want to buy stocks before they become big and stay prepared for when it might blow over. That’s where the principle of following the life cycle of a trend still applies, even if it is hard to follow. Don’t jump on a trend after it’s become cringe – get ahead of consensus.
Share your thoughts
What do you think of trend-based investing? Click here to send us your response.
Here’s what a reader commented
Question: Has the stock market decline hurt you, or are you impartial?
Answer: No, the stock market has not hurt me. I invest for the long term so I don’t have money in the market that I’ll need for the next 5 years. I’m not impartial either as I’m more excited about the decline because not only do I believe the market will come back and thus not having to actually turn these potential paper losses into actual losses, this decline has given me the opportunity to buy stocks on sale, giving me a potentially larger return when the market does bounce back.
Catch up with Fundstrat
During Trump 1.0, equities bottomed when VIX surged and sentiment flipped negative. Took months in 2018 but only weeks in 2025.
Technical
Following some whip-saw-like trading into next Wednesday, I expect equities to start to turn higher more quickly.
Crypto
While we remain cautious near-term, we highlight key reasons for growing optimism and outline why the crypto market is primed for a significant move in the coming weeks.
News We’re Following
Breaking News
- Core inflation in February hits 2.8%, hotter than expected; income jumps 0.8% CNBC
- Vance to Lead Visit to U.S. Base in Greenland NYT
Markets and economy
- CoreWeave prices IPO at $40 a share, below expected range CNBC
- Wall Street analysts say Elon Musk is the clear auto tariff winner: ‘Tesla wins, Detroit bleeds’ CNBC
- Businesses are ‘on pause’ or ‘paralyzed’ until Washington’s ‘fog’ lifts, Fed’s Barkin says MW
Business
- Robinhood CEO sees Amazon-like subscription model as path to ‘loyalty’ in financial services CNBC
- Yoga pants maker Lululemon says US consumers are cutting back on spending FT
- AppLovin Stock Plunged 20% After Short-Seller Report. It’s Bouncing Back. BR
- Investors Seek Safe Harbor In Entertainment Stocks Netflix, Spotify IBD
- The Costco Effect has Walmart on edge
Politics
- Inside the Law Firm That Decided to Fight Back Against Trump’s Attack WSJ
- Trump Ushers In ‘New High Water Mark’ for Deregulation WSJ
- US scientists look to Europe in wake of Trump funding cuts SEM
Overseas
- Argentina says it nears $20bn IMF loan deal FT
- Italy’s Giorgia Meloni rejects ‘childish’ choice between Trump and Europe FT
Of Interest
- Kermit The Frog to speak at University of Maryland 2025 Commencement CBS
- Overwhelmed by Cuteness? There’s a Word for That. NYT
- ChatGPT’s viral image-generation AI is ‘melting’ OpenAI’s GPUs CNBC
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures -12
point(s) (-0.2%
) Overnight range: -28 to +8 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei -1.8%
Topix -2.07% China SHCOMP -0.67% Hang Seng -0.65% Korea -1.89% Singapore -0.23% Australia +0.16% India -0.26% Taiwan -1.59% |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 -0.39%
Stoxx 600 -0.21% FTSE 100 +0.04% DAX -0.58% CAC 40 -0.4% Italy -0.41% IBEX -0.43% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) +0.07%
to 104.41 EUR/USD -0.22% to 1.0777 GBP/USD +0.05% to 1.2955 USD/JPY -0.31% to 150.58 USD/CNY flat at 7.2622 USD/CNH +0.06% to 7.2727 USD/CHF +0.07% to 0.8823 USD/CAD +0.13% to 1.4324 AUD/USD -0.14% to 0.6296 |
| Crypto |
| BTC -2.54%
to 85087.43 ETH -4.9% to 1908.86 XRP -4.83% to 2.2266 Cardano -5.05% to 0.6996 Solana -5.82% to 131.03 Avalanche -7.0% to 20.47 Dogecoin -5.28% to 0.1811 Chainlink -7.95% to 14.3 |
| Commodities and Others |
| VIX +2.57%
to 19.17 WTI Crude +0.17% to 70.04 Brent Crude +0.16% to 74.15 Nat Gas -1.24% to 3.9 RBOB Gas +0.12% to 2.249 Heating Oil +0.07% to 2.286 Gold +0.51% to 3072.9 Silver -0.07% to 34.39 Copper +0.19% to 5.107 |
| US Treasuries |
| 1M -5.4bps
to 4.2524% 3M -2.0bps to 4.2735% 6M -2.5bps to 4.2086% 12M -1.7bps to 4.0767% 2Y -0.2bps to 3.9878% 5Y -1.1bps to 4.0767% 7Y -1.3bps to 4.203% 10Y -2.5bps to 4.3342% 20Y -2.8bps to 4.7106% 30Y -3.3bps to 4.6882% |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread narrowed 1.3bps to -31.9
bps 10Y-2 Y Spread narrowed 2.3bps to 34.2 bps 30Y-10 Y Spread narrowed 0.7bps to 35.0 bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX -0.33%
SPX Eq Wt -0.26% NASDAQ 100 -0.59% NASDAQ Comp -0.53% Russell Midcap -0.7% R2k -0.39% R1k Value -0.29% R1k Growth -0.51% R2k Value -0.14% R2k Growth -0.63% FANG+ -0.95% Semis -1.92% Software -1.71% Biotech +0.53% Regional Banks -0.79% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Cons Staples +1.0% Healthcare +0.19% Cons Disc +0.09% Materials -0.03% Utes -0.04% Fin -0.23% REITs -0.25% SPX -0.33% Indu -0.51% Tech -0.75% Comm Srvcs -0.84% Energy -0.85% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors +6.5bp
to 365bp All Sectors ex-Energy +6.4bp to 330bp Cons Disc +5.4bp to 355bp Indu +8.8bp to 272bp Tech +4.7bp to 370bp Comm Srvcs +6.0bp to 552bp Materials +8.1bp to 333bp Energy +5.5bp to 360bp Fin Snr +7.1bp to 309bp Fin Sub +3.1bp to 230bp Cons Staples +5.2bp to 235bp Healthcare +10.9bp to 386bp Utes +4.9bp to 254bp * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/28 | 8:30AM | Feb PCE m/m | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 3/28 | 8:30AM | Feb Core PCE m/m | 0.3 | 0.28 |
| 3/28 | 8:30AM | Feb PCE y/y | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 3/28 | 8:30AM | Feb Core PCE y/y | 2.7 | 2.64679 |
| 3/28 | 10AM | Mar F UMich 1yr Inf Exp | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| 3/28 | 10AM | Mar F UMich Sentiment | 57.9 | 57.9 |
| 4/1 | 9:45AM | Mar F S&P Manu PMI | n/a | 49.8 |
| 4/1 | 10AM | Mar ISM Manu PMI | 49.8 | 50.3 |
| 4/1 | 10AM | Feb JOLTS | 7690.0 | 7740.0 |
| 4/2 | 10AM | Feb F Durable Gds Orders | n/a | 0.9 |
| 4/3 | 8:30AM | Feb Trade Balance | -110.0 | -131.382 |
| 4/3 | 9:45AM | Mar F S&P Srvcs PMI | n/a | 54.3 |
| 4/3 | 10AM | Mar ISM Srvcs PMI | 53.1 | 53.5 |
