Editor’s note: Dear Readers, we’re making this newsletter more interactive, inviting you to share your thoughts about this or any previous First to Market. Selected comments will be published – completely anonymously – in a future issue to further spark contemplation and discussion. We look forward to hearing from you!
“The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.” — Eleanor Roosevelt
Chart of the Day
Good morning!
Rarely is it fun to be a fresh college grad looking for jobs. You get told you don’t have enough real-life corporate experience, or you’re not the right “culture fit,” or you don’t have the connections. And when you do get the job, oh my, is it a reality check.
That being said, it looks like an extra tough job market right now for that demographic.
The unemployment rate for college graduates has risen more than for other groups, as highlighted in a recent New York Times article. And that by itself wouldn’t be as worrisome, if not for the combination of higher salary deflation for job switchers versus job stayers.
The tightness in the white-collar world likely isn’t going to get better. One reason why is because “the percentage of tasks at high risk of automation was five times higher for a market research analyst than for a marketing manager, for example,” an FT article citing data from the Brookings Institution wrote. The article basically said that senior professionals would likely still be needed in a world where AI is deeply embedded in the workplace, whereas the situation for juniors looks dire.
But then here’s the question, if you don’t have those junior employees grinding their way to the top, how will they ever learn the skills that are needed to move into a senior management role? And without this rite to passage, can one even succeed in a senior role? The answer varies for each profession and each role, but I know for writers, it’s hard to become a good editor if you’ve never written before.
Still, none of this is enough to deter kids these days. The New York Times reported that colleges are expecting what could be their largest freshman classes as about 3.9 million students earn their high school diplomas. (Glad I’m not graduating in that job market.)
There’s hope that by the time those kids are ready to graduate, the job market could look better.
And it’s also worth considering that this could just be the market normalizing from the past few years. It wasn’t that long ago when college graduates were receiving multiple offers and bonuses upwards of thousands of dollars. That wasn’t normal either.
To be sure, it would be wrong of me to not acknowledge the hardships of those before us. College graduates these days have it nowhere near as difficult as my dad purportedly did, who walked miles in the snow, uphill both ways to get to school.
Share your thoughts
Do you think that it’s still worth chasing a typical 9-5 career, or do you believe a blue-collar job – or perhaps one in the arts – is where it is at for today’s youth? Send us your thoughts by clicking here!
Catch Up With FS Insight
The Conference Board shows a plunge in consumer expectations for stock prices, the worst in 40 years and our work shows this is a contrarian buy signal. And we see plenty of cash on the sidelines to further fuel upside.
Technical
While it’s difficult to call for indices to carry straight higher back to new all-time highs without any meaningful backing and filling, I feel like any stalling out and pullback happens from much higher levels and likely begins sometime in May.
Crypto
We cover the latest public company to add BTC to its balance sheet, explore what’s driving the ongoing rise in stablecoin market cap, and highlight additional signs of indecision currently weighing on the market.
News We’re Following
Breaking News
- Spy Chiefs to Face Lawmakers as Criticism Mounts Over Signal Leak NYT
Markets and economy
- Trump says tariffs coming in April will ‘probably be more lenient than reciprocal’ CNBC
- Top Federal Reserve official says market angst over inflation would be ‘red flag’ FT
- Barclays cuts S&P 500 target to lowest on Wall Street as tariff pressure mounts CNBC
- The 10 cities where people are the most delinquent on debt QZ
- Low- and middle-income Americans say they are sacrificing their happiness in the face of stubborn inflation and more tariffs ahead MW
Business
- Amazon is testing shopping, health assistants as it pushes deeper into generative AI CNBC
- Dollar Tree is selling Family Dollar, ending its disastrous merger CNN
Politics
- Columbia Pushed by Trump Team to Reaffirm Commitment to Deal WSJ
- The global leaders rising in the polls as they battle Donald Trump FT
Overseas
- Inside Russia’s Gazprom: can the ailing energy giant be revived? FT
- India Is on a Hiring Binge That Trump’s Tariffs Can’t Stop NYT
Of Interest
- The money menders of Gaza FT
- Nvidia’s latest innovation started as an April Fools’ joke 8 years ago QZ
- James Webb telescope captures image of star being born SEM
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures -7
point(s) (-0.1%
) Overnight range: -10 to +10 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei +0.65%
Topix +0.55% China SHCOMP -0.04% Hang Seng +0.6% Korea +1.08% Singapore +0.23% Australia +0.71% India -0.75% Taiwan -0.06% |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 -0.71%
Stoxx 600 -0.57% FTSE 100 +0.01% DAX -0.66% CAC 40 -0.69% Italy -0.37% IBEX -0.14% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) +0.04%
to 104.22 EUR/USD +0.07% to 1.0799 GBP/USD -0.25% to 1.2912 USD/JPY +0.14% to 150.12 USD/CNY +0.08% to 7.2644 USD/CNH +0.09% to 7.2725 USD/CHF +0.14% to 0.8837 USD/CAD -0.21% to 1.4249 AUD/USD +0.4% to 0.6328 |
| Crypto |
| BTC +0.07%
to 87955.95 ETH -0.17% to 2061.99 XRP +0.64% to 2.4688 Cardano +2.64% to 0.766 Solana -0.38% to 144.05 Avalanche -0.91% to 22.71 Dogecoin +7.31% to 0.204 Chainlink +2.99% to 15.89 |
| Commodities and Others |
| VIX +1.75%
to 17.45 WTI Crude +0.55% to 69.38 Brent Crude +0.55% to 73.42 Nat Gas +1.33% to 3.89 RBOB Gas +0.34% to 2.216 Heating Oil +0.21% to 2.291 Gold -0.03% to 3019.25 Silver +0.03% to 33.74 Copper flat at 5.183 |
| US Treasuries |
| 1M -1.3bps
to 4.2764% 3M +0.7bps to 4.2833% 6M -0.8bps to 4.2159% 12M -0.8bps to 4.0754% 2Y -1.1bps to 4.0022% 5Y +1.1bps to 4.0789% 7Y +1.6bps to 4.2033% 10Y +1.5bps to 4.3287% 20Y +2.0bps to 4.7033% 30Y +2.0bps to 4.6784% |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread narrowed 2.6bps to -29.7
bps 10Y-2 Y Spread widened 3.3bps to 32.4 bps 30Y-10 Y Spread widened 0.4bps to 34.8 bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX +0.16%
SPX Eq Wt -0.24% NASDAQ 100 +0.53% NASDAQ Comp +0.46% Russell Midcap -0.27% R2k -0.66% R1k Value -0.22% R1k Growth +0.44% R2k Value -0.81% R2k Growth -0.52% FANG+ +1.12% Semis -0.42% Software +1.01% Biotech -1.96% Regional Banks -0.31% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Comm Srvcs +1.43% Cons Disc +0.98% Fin +0.49% Energy +0.47% Tech +0.29% SPX +0.16% Indu +0.1% Materials +0.03% Cons Staples -0.96% REITs -1.22% Healthcare -1.29% Utes -1.61% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors +1.9bp
to 350bp All Sectors ex-Energy +1.5bp to 315bp Cons Disc +2.1bp to 343bp Indu +0.4bp to 255bp Tech +0.9bp to 355bp Comm Srvcs +1.7bp to 539bp Materials +3.0bp to 317bp Energy +2.6bp to 344bp Fin Snr +1.1bp to 294bp Fin Sub -0.3bp to 225bp Cons Staples +0.6bp to 223bp Healthcare +3.2bp to 362bp Utes +2.6bp to 241bp * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/26 | 8:30AM | Feb P Durable Gds Orders | -1.0 | 3.2 |
| 3/27 | 8:30AM | 4Q T GDP QoQ | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 3/28 | 8:30AM | Feb PCE m/m | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 3/28 | 8:30AM | Feb Core PCE m/m | 0.3 | 0.28 |
| 3/28 | 8:30AM | Feb PCE y/y | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 3/28 | 8:30AM | Feb Core PCE y/y | 2.7 | 2.64679 |
| 3/28 | 10AM | Mar F UMich 1yr Inf Exp | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| 3/28 | 10AM | Mar F UMich Sentiment | 57.9 | 57.9 |
| 4/1 | 9:45AM | Mar F S&P Manu PMI | n/a | 49.8 |
| 4/1 | 10AM | Mar ISM Manu PMI | 49.9 | 50.3 |
| 4/1 | 10AM | Feb JOLTS | n/a | 7740.0 |
