“Opinion is like a pendulum and obeys the same law. If it goes past the centre of gravity on one side, it must go a like distance on the other; and it is only after a certain time that it finds the true point at which it can remain at rest.” – Arthur Schopenhauer
Chart of the Day
Good morning!
There’s no denying that the pendulum has swung against progressive ideas like DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance), particularly in corporate America. Even before Donald Trump won re-election in November, the backlash to such company initiatives had surged – from state pension funds, political activists, and some shareholders.
In its heyday, proponents of environmental initiatives would routinely accuse corporations of “greenwashing” – making exaggerated or outright false claims about their commitment to such policies to improve their public images. Yet as the backlash began, an opposite accusation emerged – greenhushing, in which a company might downplay or even stay completely silent about its sustainability efforts to stay under the radar of those who might target them for such initiatives.
Now that there’s an outspoken opponent of such measures now occupying the Oval Office, there’s clear evidence that many publicly traded companies are abandoning their DEI efforts. This effort has not been unanimous, of course. Investors at companies like Apple, Costco, and John Deere recently voted – overwhelmingly – to reject anti-DEI shareholder proposals, and some executives at other companies like JPMorgan have defended such efforts as well.
There is evidence that placating or working with the President could lead to unhappiness from a company’s customer base. We’re not just talking about protests such as those against Elon Musk’s Tesla (last weekend alone, the Guardian reported 91 scheduled protests against the brand). Customers have called for boycotts on companies such as Amazon and Walmart, and recent mobile-device location data tracked by Placer.ai suggests that a boycott of Target after it rolled back DEI initiatives might have resulted in a 9% decline in foot traffic at its stores.
Yet there might be reason to believe that a DEI version of greenhushing might be at work as well. That’s what Michelle Jolivet, author of “Is DEI Dead?” told the BBC. Although “DEI has become more of a controversial word, […] if I just take that word out, I can still do the same thing,” she argued. Jolivet cited Walmart’s eliminating the job of “chief diversity officer” but replacing it with a “chief belonging officer” as one example.
Meanwhile, Nvidia is quietly continuing to help recognize the contributions of STEM pioneers from underrepresented groups. The AI chip giant announced last Thursday that it would once again name a chip after a woman – specifically, Vera Rubin, the physicist who discovered “dark matter.” It’s not the first Nvidia chip to follow this convention. The company has previously named chip microarchitectures after women like Rear Adm. Grace Hopper, Ada Lovelace, and Marie Curie, and the company has also recognized Alan Turing and the African-American mathematician David Blackwell in a similar fashion.
Back in the day, companies were accused of pretending to be more “woke” than they actually were. Now, it might be that some are more woke than they’re pretending to be.
Catch Up With Fundstrat
For the first time in a while (weeks?), the weekend was quiet from a policy perspective (consider last Sunday’s “there will be pain”). To us, this likely adds to the equity markets regaining composure in the week ahead, with the March FOMC meeting coming up on Wednesday.
TECHNICAL
Several important positives emerged last week to argue for a bottoming process in U.S. stocks. Overall, it’s hard to rule out a possible retest of lows early this week, but the risk/reward scenario is arguably excellent at current levels.
CRYPTO
We saw a crypto bounce last Friday that looks promising, but to us, certain key signals—like volume and put/call skew—need to improve for stronger conviction in follow-through.
News We’re Following
Breaking News
- US retail sales rise by less than forecast after January drop BBG
- Tornadoes, wildfires and blinding dust sweep across the U.S. as a massive storm leaves at least 35 dead CNBC
Markets and economy
- China’s Jan-Feb industrial output slows, retail sales growth picks up speed REU
- Trump’s trade wars tip world to slower growth, faster inflation BBG
Business
- Baidu releases reasoning AI model to take on DeepSeek BBG
- PepsiCo to buy ‘healthier soda’ brand Poppi in nearly $2 bln deal REU
Politics
- Trump dismantles Voice of America with executive order BBC
- US expels South Africa’s ambassador to Washington SEM
- Trump administration touts deportations under Alien Enemies Act after a judge temporarily blocked its use CNBC
Overseas
- Are US tariffs bringing manufacturing back to Canada? BBC
- Death toll from US strikes on Yemen rises to 53, Houthis say BBC
- Netanyahu moves to fire Israel’s domestic intelligence chief NYT
Of Interest
- Carl Lundstrom, who backed the file-sharing site Pirate Bay, dies in plane crash NYT
Stuck NASA astronauts plan for return to Earth this week WSJ
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures -23
point(s) (-0.4%
) Overnight range: -41 to -8 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei +0.93%
Topix +1.19% China SHCOMP +0.19% Hang Seng +0.77% Korea +1.73% Singapore +0.61% Australia +0.83% India +0.5% Taiwan +0.69% |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 +0.01%
Stoxx 600 +0.28% FTSE 100 +0.16% DAX -0.01% CAC 40 +0.04% Italy +0.32% IBEX +0.3% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) -0.1%
to 103.62 EUR/USD +0.16% to 1.0896 GBP/USD +0.17% to 1.2957 USD/JPY +0.03% to 148.69 USD/CNY -0.02% to 7.2361 USD/CNH -0.0% to 7.2378 USD/CHF -0.25% to 0.8829 USD/CAD -0.07% to 1.4356 AUD/USD +0.33% to 0.6345 |
| Crypto |
| BTC +0.55%
to 83677.07 ETH +0.76% to 1909.15 XRP +1.73% to 2.3492 Cardano +3.28% to 0.7265 Solana +1.49% to 129.04 Avalanche +1.48% to 18.53 Dogecoin +2.96% to 0.1742 Chainlink +2.34% to 13.82 |
| Commodities and Others |
| VIX +3.35%
to 22.5 WTI Crude +0.91% to 67.79 Brent Crude +0.88% to 71.2 Nat Gas +1.32% to 4.16 RBOB Gas +1.05% to 2.171 Heating Oil +1.46% to 2.198 Gold +0.4% to 2996.21 Silver +0.03% to 33.81 Copper -0.3% to 4.855 |
| US Treasuries |
| 1M -0.8bps
to 4.2774% 3M -0.8bps to 4.2834% 6M -0.9bps to 4.2345% 12M -0.3bps to 4.0691% 2Y -0.4bps to 4.0127% 5Y -2.1bps to 4.0682% 7Y -2.4bps to 4.1796% 10Y -2.7bps to 4.2851% 20Y -3.0bps to 4.6216% 30Y -3.3bps to 4.589% |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread narrowed 1.7bps to -29.7
bps 10Y-2 Y Spread narrowed 2.5bps to 26.8 bps 30Y-10 Y Spread narrowed 0.3bps to 30.2 bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX +2.13%
SPX Eq Wt +1.91% NASDAQ 100 +2.49% NASDAQ Comp +2.61% Russell Midcap +2.44% R2k +2.53% R1k Value +1.78% R1k Growth +2.57% R2k Value +2.4% R2k Growth +2.66% FANG+ +3.23% Semis +3.2% Software +3.81% Biotech +1.35% Regional Banks +2.96% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Tech +3.03% Energy +2.81% Fin +2.3% Cons Disc +2.14% SPX +2.13% Comm Srvcs +2.03% Utes +1.89% Indu +1.84% REITs +1.84% Materials +1.31% Healthcare +0.76% Cons Staples +0.28% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors -12.8bp
to 360bp All Sectors ex-Energy -12.4bp to 326bp Cons Disc -12.3bp to 344bp Indu -12.7bp to 273bp Tech -14.1bp to 365bp Comm Srvcs -10.4bp to 551bp Materials -12.7bp to 319bp Energy -13.8bp to 363bp Fin Snr -13.8bp to 310bp Fin Sub -6.5bp to 228bp Cons Staples -11.4bp to 236bp Healthcare -15.6bp to 381bp Utes -14.7bp to 251bp * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/17 | 8:30AM | Feb Retail Sales m/m | 0.6 | -0.9 |
| 3/17 | 10AM | Mar Homebuilder Sentiment | 42.0 | 42.0 |
| 3/18 | 8:30AM | Feb Import Price m/m | -0.1 | 0.3 |
| 3/19 | 2PM | Mar 19 FOMC Decision | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| 3/19 | 4PM | Jan Net TIC Flows | n/a | 87.144 |
| 3/20 | 10AM | Feb Existing Home Sales | 3.94 | 4.08 |
| 3/20 | 10AM | Feb Existing Home Sales m/m | -3.43 | -4.9 |
