A daily market update from FS Insight — what you need to know ahead of opening bell.
“The people are pieces of software called avatars. They are the audiovisual bodies that people use to communicate with each other in the metaverse.” — Neal Stephenson
Chart of the Day
Good morning!
President Donald Trump is not one to miss out on the latest trends.
He hasn’t shied away from establishing a government crypto strategic reserve, even if it involves some questionable tokens. Nor is he down for paper straws, citing that, “I’ve had them many times, and on occasion, they break, they explode.” (Very astute observation.)
But amidst all the action, you may have missed that he is also trying to venture into another trend, albeit one that has somewhat fallen out of fashion and turned out to be a massive loss-making experiment for even the biggest and the mightiest of tech companies.
Last week, DTTM Operations, the legal entity that handles trademarks for the Trump organization, filed an application to use the name “Trump” for a variety of uses related to virtual reality and cryptocurrencies.
Josh Gerben, a Washington, D.C.-based trademark attorney, wrote on Friday that, “while it remains unclear when or how this digital venture will take shape, the trademark application suggests that the Trump Organization is exploring ways to extend its brand into the rapidly growing metaverse and digital economy.” It’s possible the metaverse would be full of digital objects bearing Trump’s personal brand, wrote the Wall Street Journal.
If you don’t remember what the metaverse is, there’s a good reason for it. It was designed to be a virtual world where people can interact, shop, party, and work. Tech companies spent over $120 billion building out the metaverse over the first five months of 2022, according to a McKinsey report. But they couldn’t recover those investments.
Facebook was perhaps the poster child for the metaverse and its failures, with the company spending over $100 billion on it close to the end of 2022. It also changed its name to Meta Platforms to signify that it’s all in on the strategy.
But 2022 wasn’t exactly rewarding for tech stocks and even less so if you were Meta. While higher interest rates may be partially to blame, the metaverse played a role, too. Meta shares fell 64% in 2022.
Soon enough though, all was forgotten as Meta pivoted to artificial intelligence. Shares have soared 12% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has declined 1%. The company’s Reality Labs division, Meta’s metaverse division, is still reeling from the losses, however. It posted an operating loss of $17.729 billion in 2024. Meanwhile, fourth-quarter revenue grew to $1.083 billion.
Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results, so this won’t stop Trump from trying his hand at it, but whether investors will be more open to the metaverse this time around remains to be seen.
What is clear is that Trump’s ardent fans would likely be eager to buy in, just as they have bought into other products he’s previously promoted. After all, they scrambled to purchase personal memecoins tied to the president and First Lady Melania Trump, which have since collapsed in value. Shares of his social-media platform were also pretty hot when the company first started trading publicly after merging with Digital World Acquisition in early 2024, but are now down over 50% from records.
Maybe this loyalty, even if it has often not paid off, is what the Trump family is betting on.
Catch Up With Fundstrat
It is clear markets are most bothered by tariffs, which go into effect tonight. With the surge in VIX, and hedge fund positioning lightening, it does set up for good risk-reward for the remainder of the week.
TECHNICAL
While sentiment remains negative as SPX, along with NVDA, have pulled back to test important support, I don’t see the degree of technical weakness at current levels. Risk/reward looks favorable for me, as Equities will bottom out this week and turn higher.
CRYPTO
We break down Trump’s weekend surprise, analyze his remarks on the Strategic Reserve, and unpack how stagflationary signals from the latest PMI data might affect your crypto portfolio.
News We’re Following
Breaking News
- U.S. Pauses All Military Aid to Ukraine WSJ
- Walgreens Nears Roughly $10 Billion Deal to Go Private WSJ
Markets and economy
- How Americans Feel About Tariffs NYT
- Stocks fall as Donald Trump imposes tariffs on top US trade partners FT
- China Suspends Imports of US Logs and Soybeans From Three Firms BBG
Business
- Citi Copy-Paste Error Almost Sent $6 Billion to Wealth Account BBG
Politics
- Musk rallies the far right in Europe. Tesla is paying the price. RT
- Can international aid survive in a crumbling world order? FT
Overseas
- EU Floats $158 Billion Fund to Boost Military Spending After U.S. Halts Ukraine Aid WSJ
- Is It Time to Transfer Frozen Russian Assets to Ukraine? Calls Grow Louder. NYT
Of Interest
- Cat owners in Kashmir thrown into a tizzy over viral posts bad-mouthing their pets AP
- Americans apply for UK citizenship in record numbers FT
- Mardi Gras 2025: Joy and Jitters for New Orleans NYT
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures -8
point(s) (-0.1%
) Overnight range: -12 to +23 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei -1.2%
Topix -0.71% China SHCOMP +0.22% Hang Seng -0.28% Korea -0.15% Singapore -0.46% Australia -0.58% India -0.17% Taiwan -0.7% |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 -2.12%
Stoxx 600 -1.24% FTSE 100 -0.35% DAX -2.21% CAC 40 -1.42% Italy -2.59% IBEX -2.4% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) -0.46%
to 106.26 EUR/USD +0.27% to 1.0515 GBP/USD +0.2% to 1.2727 USD/JPY -0.43% to 148.85 USD/CNY -0.23% to 7.271 USD/CNH -0.36% to 7.2768 USD/CHF -0.59% to 0.8915 USD/CAD -0.39% to 1.4426 AUD/USD -0.02% to 0.6224 |
| Crypto |
| BTC -1.6%
to 83946.92 ETH -0.36% to 2102.47 XRP +3.12% to 2.3918 Cardano -2.02% to 0.8193 Solana -1.83% to 137.19 Avalanche -4.62% to 19.97 Dogecoin -0.31% to 0.1935 Chainlink -3.79% to 13.85 |
| Commodities and Others |
| VIX +1.89%
to 23.21 WTI Crude -0.85% to 67.79 Brent Crude -1.13% to 70.81 Nat Gas -0.39% to 4.11 RBOB Gas -0.16% to 2.184 Heating Oil +0.41% to 2.27 Gold +0.75% to 2914.5 Silver +0.39% to 31.81 Copper -0.92% to 4.534 |
| US Treasuries |
| 1M -1.3bps
to 4.2973% 3M -1.0bps to 4.2838% 6M -5.5bps to 4.2082% 12M -3.3bps to 4.0062% 2Y -2.3bps to 3.9266% 5Y -0.2bps to 3.9598% 7Y +1.0bps to 4.0627% 10Y +1.3bps to 4.1682% 20Y +2.4bps to 4.5059% 30Y +2.7bps to 4.4763% |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread narrowed 3.6bps to -39.1
bps 10Y-2 Y Spread widened 3.6bps to 23.7 bps 30Y-10 Y Spread widened 1.3bps to 30.6 bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX -1.76%
SPX Eq Wt -1.07% NASDAQ 100 -2.2% NASDAQ Comp -2.64% Russell Midcap -1.57% R2k -2.81% R1k Value -1.03% R1k Growth -2.48% R2k Value -2.19% R2k Growth -3.41% FANG+ -2.96% Semis -4.19% Software -1.89% Biotech -3.51% Regional Banks -1.43% SPX GICS1 Sorted: REITs +0.77% Cons Staples +0.61% Healthcare +0.35% Utes +0.19% Fin -0.86% Comm Srvcs -1.36% Indu -1.45% SPX -1.76% Materials -2.09% Cons Disc -2.31% Energy -3.51% Tech -3.52% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors +7.9bp
to 341bp All Sectors ex-Energy +7.1bp to 318bp Cons Disc +8.7bp to 311bp Indu +7.0bp to 259bp Tech +8.5bp to 339bp Comm Srvcs +7.6bp to 529bp Materials +6.4bp to 301bp Energy +11.1bp to 334bp Fin Snr +6.6bp to 285bp Fin Sub +3.2bp to 225bp Cons Staples +7.3bp to 313bp Healthcare +9.8bp to 369bp Utes +6.0bp to 246bp * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/5 | 9:45AM | Feb F S&P Srvcs PMI | 49.7 | 49.7 |
| 3/5 | 10AM | Feb ISM Srvcs PMI | 52.5 | 52.8 |
| 3/5 | 10AM | Jan F Durable Gds Orders | 3.1 | 3.1 |
| 3/6 | 8:30AM | 4Q F Nonfarm Productivity | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 3/6 | 8:30AM | Jan Trade Balance | -128.8 | -98.431 |
| 3/6 | 8:30AM | 4Q F Unit Labor Costs | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| 3/7 | 8:30AM | Feb AHE m/m | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| 3/7 | 8:30AM | Feb Unemployment Rate | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| 3/7 | 8:30AM | Feb Non-farm Payrolls | 160.0 | 143.0 |
| 3/10 | 11AM | Feb NYFed 1yr Inf Exp | n/a | 3.0 |
