A daily market update from FS Insight — what you need to know ahead of opening bell
“The day you think there are no improvements to be made is a sad one for any player.” — Lionel Messi
Overnight
Congress releases bill to avert holiday government shutdown AX
DHS overhauls H-1B visa program HILL
U.S. weighs ban on Chinese-made TP-Link router in millions of American homes WSJ
Honda and Nissan hold merger talks SEM
UK inflation rate hits highest level for eight months BBC
Suspect Luigi Mangione indicted on murder and terror-related charges SEM
Biden calls for ban on Congressional stock trading AP
U.S. fears military buildup by Turkey signals preparations for incursion into Syria WSJ
DHS Says China, Russia, Iran, and Israel are spying on people in US with SS7 404M
FTC bans hidden junk fees in hotel, event ticket prices CNBC
U.K. sanctions firm at center of secret Russian oil-trading network WSJ
Motor vehicles, online purchases boost US retail sales in November REU
China reportedly planning record-high budget deficit in 2025 to boost spending SEM
Japan boosts renewable energy targets as it tries to catch up with its neighbors SEM
Argentina’s economy emerges from recession in boon to Milei FT
Grubhub to pay $25 million over inflated delivery costs, deceptive practices WSJ
Starbucks union votes to authorize strike ahead of this year’s last scheduled bargaining session CNBC
Walmart is putting body cameras on employees after bad customer behavior QZ
KPMG outpaces Big Four rivals as audit and tax units shine FT
Weight loss drugs are getting people to the doctor, sparking wave of long-ignored diagnoses QZ
Tom Cruise gets a top U.S Navy honor for boosting the military with his screen roles AP
Chart of the Day
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures +16
point(s) (+0.3%
) Overnight range: -14 to +18 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei -0.72%
Topix -0.31% China SHCOMP +0.62% Hang Seng +0.83% Korea +1.12% Singapore -0.53% Australia -0.06% India -0.56% Taiwan +0.65% |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 +0.25%
Stoxx 600 +0.14% FTSE 100 +0.27% DAX +0.2% CAC 40 +0.19% Italy +0.15% IBEX +0.48% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) +0.03%
to 106.98 EUR/USD +0.07% to 1.0498 GBP/USD -0.04% to 1.2705 USD/JPY +0.09% to 153.6 USD/CNY +0.01% to 7.2852 USD/CNH +0.07% to 7.2932 USD/CHF +0.08% to 0.8935 USD/CAD +0.09% to 1.4323 AUD/USD -0.38% to 0.6313 |
| Crypto |
| BTC -1.71%
to 104587.29 ETH -1.46% to 3874.09 XRP -2.48% to 2.5414 Cardano -3.1% to 1.0391 Solana -3.71% to 217.18 Avalanche -2.42% to 46.7 Dogecoin -3.0% to 0.3878 Chainlink -2.86% to 27.41 |
| Commodities and Others |
| VIX -2.84%
to 15.42 WTI Crude +0.64% to 70.53 Brent Crude +0.56% to 73.6 Nat Gas +0.63% to 3.33 RBOB Gas +0.76% to 1.959 Heating Oil +0.98% to 2.25 Gold +0.07% to 2648.68 Silver -0.34% to 30.44 Copper -0.43% to 4.074 |
| US Treasuries |
| 1M -2.9bps
to 4.2968% 3M -0.8bps to 4.317% 6M -0.5bps to 4.2981% 12M -0.9bps to 4.2349% 2Y +0.6bps to 4.251% 5Y +0.4bps to 4.266% 7Y +0.5bps to 4.3349% 10Y +0.6bps to 4.4047% 20Y +0.6bps to 4.6842% 30Y +0.6bps to 4.5945% |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread narrowed 4.2bps to -13.1
bps 10Y-2 Y Spread widened 0.2bps to 15.2 bps 30Y-10 Y Spread narrowed 0.0bps to 18.8 bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX -0.39%
SPX Eq Wt -0.79% NASDAQ 100 -0.43% NASDAQ Comp -0.32% Russell Midcap -0.87% R2k -1.18% R1k Value -0.65% R1k Growth -0.29% R2k Value -1.34% R2k Growth -1.03% FANG+ -1.17% Semis -1.3% Software -0.91% Biotech -0.18% Regional Banks -2.35% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Cons Disc +0.28% Healthcare -0.05% Cons Staples -0.12% Utes -0.38% SPX -0.39% Tech -0.4% Materials -0.48% REITs -0.53% Comm Srvcs -0.6% Fin -0.69% Energy -0.76% Indu -0.9% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors +4.8bp
to 311bp All Sectors ex-Energy +4.4bp to 291bp Cons Disc +4.4bp to 249bp Indu +4.3bp to 233bp Tech +2.8bp to 311bp Comm Srvcs +4.1bp to 504bp Materials +5.7bp to 287bp Energy +5.2bp to 306bp Fin Snr +4.5bp to 270bp Fin Sub +0.4bp to 187bp Cons Staples +4.7bp to 270bp Healthcare +8.7bp to 375bp Utes +4.8bp to 225bp * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/18 | 2PM | Dec 18 FOMC Decision | 4.5 | 4.75 |
| 12/19 | 8:30AM | 3Q T GDP QoQ | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| 12/19 | 10AM | Nov Existing Home Sales | 4.09 | 3.96 |
| 12/19 | 10AM | Nov Existing Home Sales m/m | 3.33 | 3.39 |
| 12/19 | 4PM | Oct Net TIC Flows | n/a | 398.394 |
| 12/20 | 8:30AM | Nov PCE m/m | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 12/20 | 8:30AM | Nov Core PCE m/m | 0.2 | 0.27 |
| 12/20 | 8:30AM | Nov PCE y/y | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| 12/20 | 8:30AM | Nov Core PCE y/y | 2.9 | 2.79617 |
| 12/20 | 10AM | Dec F UMich 1yr Inf Exp | n/a | 2.9 |
| 12/20 | 10AM | Dec F UMich Sentiment | 74.2 | 74.0 |
| 12/23 | 10AM | Dec Conf Board Sentiment | 113.0 | 111.7 |
| 12/24 | 8:30AM | Nov P Durable Gds Orders | -0.4 | 0.3 |
| 12/24 | 10AM | Nov New Home Sales | 663.0 | 610.0 |
| 12/24 | 10AM | Nov New Home Sales m/m | 8.7 | -17.3 |
MORNING INSIGHT
Good morning!
We think probabilities favor stocks rallying post-Dec FOMC rate decision, as this key uncertainty is lifted.
Click HERE for more.
TECHNICAL
- SPX likely should break out higher of its recent neutral consolidation.
- Magnificent 7 outperformance has proven extreme, but likely continues into January.
- IHF, the Healthcare Providers ETF, could weaken to the low 40s before stabilizing.
Click HERE for more.
CRYPTO
In our view, the recent HYPE and PENGU airdrops have potential as positive tailwinds for crypto prices. Also, we see the likelihood of a crypto rally after today’s FOMC meeting.
Click HERE for more.
First News
Argentine President Javier Milei will attend the Jan. 20, 2025, inauguration of President Donald Trump, Milei’s office confirmed yesterday. Milei’s attendance breaks a longstanding tradition. Foreign leaders traditionally refrain from attending U.S. Presidential inaugurations, opting to send diplomatic representatives in their stead.
Milei’s office said the Argentine leader decided to break with tradition after a personal call from Trump. It is no secret that Milei is a fan of the soon-to-be 47th President. He has been a vocal, unabashed fan, and he attended Trump’s post-election victory party at Mar-A-Lago, after all.
Trump likely enjoys the flattery, and Milei’s pro-business stance and climate-change denialism align with Trump’s views as well. Yet it’s not just about the simpatico that Milei shares with Trump and with Trump adviser Elon Musk. There’s also what Argentina has to offer the U.S. – the same thing that has helped Argentina to repeatedly re-enter and successfully navigate global credit markets after defaulting on sovereign debt: a wealth of highly desirable natural resources. (Trump could help Argentina in this regard, just as he did in 2019, though this obviously did not cure Argentina’s ills.)
With surging demands for energy and minerals driven by electrification and AI, Argentina retains this advantage. Importantly, the country is home to some of the world’s largest lithium reserves (currently providing an estimated 10.4% of global supply), abundant copper reserves that are largely untapped, as well as oil and natural gas resources. The country enhances the attractiveness of such resources through laws and regulations that include tax incentives; private ownership, exploration, and development of mineral resources; and explicitly equal treatment of domestic and foreign investors/miners/development companies.
Obviously, that’s not to say all is well in Argentina. Milei himself will freely admit that challenges remain. However, the country’s out-of-control inflation has been brought to heel, and yesterday it announced an official exit from recession that sent Argentine bonds climbing. These could give the pro-Trump leader some political breathing room after his effective, but domestically unpopular austerity measures – and thus provide an advantage to the U.S. as it competes with China for technology-related natural resources.
